Macro Glossary

The cumulative mark-to-market losses banks are carrying on their held-to-maturity securities portfolios.

A sustained decline in a major equity index of 20% or more from a recent peak.

The ratio of total US stock market capitalization to US GDP, used as a market-valuation gauge.

Authorizations issued by local jurisdictions for private housing units to be built.

A monthly index of North American freight shipments and expenditures based on billions of dollars of actual invoices.

The Conference Board's monthly Leading Economic Index.

A survey-based index measuring how optimistic households feel about the economy and their personal finances.

The ratio of the price of copper to the price of gold, used as a market-based growth and inflation signal.

After-tax corporate profits as reported in the US national income and product accounts.

The share of credit card balances that are 30+ or 90+ days past due.

The yield difference between a risky corporate bond and a risk-free Treasury of the same maturity.

The ratio of total US federal debt to nominal GDP.

A trade-weighted index measuring the dollar against a basket of major currencies.

Equities of developing-economy countries, tracked by indices like MSCI EM.

The overnight interbank lending rate targeted by the Federal Open Market Committee.

The annualized percentage change in real gross domestic product.

The Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP nowcast, updated 6-8 times per quarter.

The price of gold divided by the price of silver, historically used as a risk-sentiment gauge.

Total household debt service payments as a share of disposable personal income.

Privately-owned housing units whose foundations were begun in a given month.

A Fed index measuring output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

A sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services.

Weekly count of first-time filings for unemployment insurance benefits.

The ratio of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers to their monthly sales.

A monthly diffusion index that measures manufacturing activity. Above 50 means expansion, below 50 means contraction.

A monthly BLS survey measuring job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs.

The Conference Board's composite index of 10 leading economic indicators.

The Conference Board's framework for converting LEI declines into recession signals: Depth, Diffusion, Duration.

A broad measure of US money supply including currency, checking deposits, savings deposits, and money-market accounts.

A Chicago Fed index summarizing 105 measures of financial activity into a single financial-conditions gauge.

The process by which the National Bureau of Economic Research officially identifies the peaks and troughs of US business cycles.

A monthly survey of small business owners' expectations for hiring, capex, and sales.

A monthly recession-probability model published by the New York Fed, based on the 3m10y yield curve spread.

The Fed facility that lets eligible counterparties lend cash overnight to the Fed in exchange for Treasury collateral.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure and the largest component of US GDP.

The share of disposable personal income that households save rather than spend.

The ratio of a stock's or index's price to its trailing twelve-month earnings per share.

Large-scale central-bank purchases of securities to lower long-term interest rates and expand bank reserves.

Reduction of the Fed's balance sheet by allowing Treasuries and agency MBS to run off without reinvestment.

Personal income adjusted for inflation, excluding transfer payments.

A significant, broad-based, sustained decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.

Any data series whose behavior reliably precedes or confirms a recession.

A market-cap-weighted index of 500 leading US companies.

A recession indicator that triggers when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its 12-month low.

The Fed's quarterly survey of senior loan officers on lending standards and loan demand.

A scenario in which monetary policy slows inflation without causing a recession.

The simultaneous occurrence of high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand.

Employment in the temporary help services industry tracked monthly by BLS.

The extra yield investors demand to hold longer-duration bonds instead of rolling short-duration bonds.

The share of the civilian labor force that is jobless and actively seeking work.

Annual federal spending to service the national debt.

The total outstanding debt of the US federal government.

The CBOE's measure of implied 30-day volatility on the S&P 500, sometimes called the 'fear gauge.'

When short-term Treasury yields exceed long-term Treasury yields, signaling elevated recession risk.