Macro glossary
Sahm Rule
A recession indicator that triggers when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its 12-month low.
Definition
Created by economist Claudia Sahm, the Sahm Rule has correctly identified every US recession since 1970 in real time with no false positives until 2024, when a data-revision issue caused a brief trigger that Sahm herself flagged as potentially spurious. It is now watched as one of the cleanest labor-market recession signals available.
Related indicators
Sahm Rule
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule ha
Unemployment Rate
Track the U.S. unemployment rate. Rising unemployment above 0.5% from cycle lows triggers recession
Jobless Claims
Weekly initial jobless claims tracker. Rising claims above 300K sustained signal labor market weaken
Related terms
Recession
A significant, broad-based, sustained decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.
Recession Indicator
Any data series whose behavior reliably precedes or confirms a recession.
NBER Recession Dating
The process by which the National Bureau of Economic Research officially identifies the peaks and troughs of US business cycles.