Yield Curve (2s30s) Spread
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Inversion (<0)
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's yield curve value (2s30s) is 0.20, reflecting a significant decline from a high of 1.34 on December 17, 2025, indicating a downward trend over the past four months. This persistent inversion, particularly with the recent readings consistently at 0.20 since March 18, raises concerns about recession risk, as it suggests a lack of investor confidence in long-term growth prospects. The sustained low level signals that the economy may be entering a contraction phase, reinforcing the need for caution among investors.
What is the Yield Curve 2s30s?
The 2s30s spread compares 30-year and 2-year Treasury yields. It captures long-duration economic expectations and is sensitive to both inflation expectations and growth outlook over a full business cycle.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The 2s30s spread provides a broader view of the term structure than the 2s10s. A steepening curve after inversion can signal that the Fed is about to cut rates — often a late-cycle confirmation that recession is approaching.
Historical Context
This spread tends to move with the 2s10s but with larger amplitude. Its steepening in late cycle environments has historically coincided with equity market peaks.
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