Yield Curve (2s30s) Spread
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Inversion (<0)
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's yield curve value (2s30s) is 0.91, showing a slight increase from 0.88 over the past few days, but down from a recent high of 1.07 on May 20. The overall trend since mid-July has been a gradual decline, with a range of 0.2 to 1.07, indicating a flattening yield curve and potential concerns about future economic growth. This trend suggests a reduced risk of recession at the moment, as the yield curve remains in a normal state and has not inverted, which typically signals heightened recession fears. However, the recent decline in values indicates caution, as a sustained downward trend could signal future economic challenges.
What is the Yield Curve 2s30s?
The 2s30s spread compares 30-year and 2-year Treasury yields. It captures long-duration economic expectations and is sensitive to both inflation expectations and growth outlook over a full business cycle.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The 2s30s spread provides a broader view of the term structure than the 2s10s. A steepening curve after inversion can signal that the Fed is about to cut rates — often a late-cycle confirmation that recession is approaching.
Historical Context
This spread tends to move with the 2s10s but with larger amplitude. Its steepening in late cycle environments has historically coincided with equity market peaks.
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