Yield Curve (2s30s) Spread
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Inversion (<0)
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the yield curve between 2-year and 30-year Treasury bonds is currently at 1.28, indicating a steepening trend. This steepening can signal an increased risk of recession as it often occurs when the Federal Reserve is cutting rates. Investors should remain cautious, especially if the curve inverts, which would be a stronger recession signal.
What is the Yield Curve 2s30s?
The 2s30s spread compares 30-year and 2-year Treasury yields. It captures long-duration economic expectations and is sensitive to both inflation expectations and growth outlook over a full business cycle.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The 2s30s spread provides a broader view of the term structure than the 2s10s. A steepening curve after inversion can signal that the Fed is about to cut rates — often a late-cycle confirmation that recession is approaching.
Historical Context
This spread tends to move with the 2s10s but with larger amplitude. Its steepening in late cycle environments has historically coincided with equity market peaks.
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