Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly initial jobless claims tracker. Rising claims above 300K sustained signal labor market weakening and recession risk.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >300K sustained = weakening labor
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, initial jobless claims stand at 206,000, indicating a healthy labor market. This figure is well below the trigger level of 300,000, suggesting that recession risk remains low at this time.
What is the Jobless Claims?
Initial jobless claims measure the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time each week. It is the most timely indicator of labor market health, released weekly with only a one-week lag.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Claims above 300,000 sustained over several weeks signal meaningful labor market deterioration. Sharp increases from cycle lows are among the earliest recession signals available.
Historical Context
Claims spiked above 600K before the 2008 recession was officially declared. The 4-week moving average helps smooth volatility and provides a cleaner signal.
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