DXY U.S. Dollar Index
Monitor the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Dollar strength can signal global stress and tightening financial conditions that precede recessions.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Rapid decline = capital flight
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the DXY (Dollar Index) stands at 117.5258, indicating a stable dollar. This stability suggests that there is currently low risk of capital flight, which typically signals increased recession risk. Overall, the current trend points to a safe economic environment.
What is the DXY Dollar Index?
The DXY Index measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF). It reflects relative monetary policy, capital flows, and risk sentiment globally.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
A strong dollar tightens global financial conditions, puts pressure on emerging markets with dollar-denominated debt, and squeezes U.S. multinationals' earnings. Extreme dollar strength often precedes global economic stress.
Historical Context
The DXY surged to 20-year highs in 2022 as the Fed aggressively hiked rates. Similar spikes preceded the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis.
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