Yield Curve (2s10s) Spread
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since 1955.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Inversion (<0) precedes recession
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's yield curve (2s10s) value is 0.46, reflecting a slight increase from the previous day’s 0.44 and a notable recovery from a low of 0.27 on June 19. This marks a trend of steepening after a period of inversion, indicating a potential reversal in market sentiment as the curve has risen from a recent low of 0.34 on June 24 to its current level. This steepening trend suggests a reduced recession risk, as the yield curve's movement away from inversion typically signals improving economic conditions. The shift from a low of 0.27 to 0.46 indicates a growing confidence in future economic growth, which historically precedes a recovery phase rather than a recession.
What is the Yield Curve 2s10s?
The 2s10s yield curve measures the difference between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates (inversion), it signals that bond markets expect economic weakness ahead.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Yield curve inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since 1955, with only one false signal. Historically, recessions follow 6–18 months after the curve un-inverts, making this one of the most reliable leading indicators.
Historical Context
The 2s10s spread inverted in 2022–2023 for the longest sustained period in history. Prior inversions in 2000 and 2006 preceded the dot-com bust and the Great Financial Crisis respectively.
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