Yield Curve (2s10s) Spread
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since 1955.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Inversion (<0) precedes recession
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's yield curve value (2s10s) is 0.35, which reflects a steepening trend after a recent inversion that saw values drop to a low of 0.27 on June 19. This marks a significant recovery from the inversion, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment, as the curve has increased from 0.27 to 0.35 over the past few weeks. The steepening of the yield curve suggests a reduced recession risk in the near term, as historically, inversions have preceded economic downturns. With the current value above the recent lows and showing signs of recovery, the market may be anticipating a stabilization or improvement in economic conditions.
What is the Yield Curve 2s10s?
The 2s10s yield curve measures the difference between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates (inversion), it signals that bond markets expect economic weakness ahead.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Yield curve inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since 1955, with only one false signal. Historically, recessions follow 6–18 months after the curve un-inverts, making this one of the most reliable leading indicators.
Historical Context
The 2s10s spread inverted in 2022–2023 for the longest sustained period in history. Prior inversions in 2000 and 2006 preceded the dot-com bust and the Great Financial Crisis respectively.
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