JPMorgan Recession Probability Model
Track JPMorgan's market-implied recession probability model. Combines bond, equity, and credit market signals into a single probability estimate.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >50% = high probability
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the JPM Recession Probability stands at 35%, indicating a moderate risk of recession. This value suggests that while the economy is not currently in a high-risk zone, there is a notable chance of downturn, especially if the probability exceeds 50%. Investors should remain vigilant as economic conditions evolve.
What is the JPM Recession Prob?
JPMorgan's recession probability model combines signals from Treasury yields, credit spreads, equity volatility, and other market-based indicators to estimate the probability that the U.S. is entering or in a recession.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Market-based probability models synthesize the collective intelligence of millions of investors. When the model exceeds 50%, markets are pricing in a recession as the base case.
Historical Context
The model has historically spiked above 60% within months of recession onset. It provides a useful summary of how financial markets are pricing recession risk in real time.
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