JPMorgan Recession Probability Model
Track JPMorgan's market-implied recession probability model. Combines bond, equity, and credit market signals into a single probability estimate.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >50% = high probability
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's JPM Recession Probability stands at 35%, maintaining a consistent level over the past 56 days, with no fluctuations in the readings. This flat trend indicates a stable perception of moderate recession risk, as the indicator has not moved from this value since June 28, 2026. Given the sustained reading at 35%, the recession risk remains moderate, but the lack of movement suggests that there is currently no immediate shift in economic conditions that would elevate this risk. The market appears to be in a holding pattern, indicating that while recession concerns are present, they are not intensifying at this time.
What is the JPM Recession Prob?
JPMorgan's recession probability model combines signals from Treasury yields, credit spreads, equity volatility, and other market-based indicators to estimate the probability that the U.S. is entering or in a recession.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Market-based probability models synthesize the collective intelligence of millions of investors. When the model exceeds 50%, markets are pricing in a recession as the base case.
Historical Context
The model has historically spiked above 60% within months of recession onset. It provides a useful summary of how financial markets are pricing recession risk in real time.
Related Indicators
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Track the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate. Rate cuts after sustained hiking cycles often signal late-cycle recession risk.
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