JPMorgan Recession Probability Model
Track JPMorgan's market-implied recession probability model. Combines bond, equity, and credit market signals into a single probability estimate.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >50% = high probability
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's JPM Recession Probability stands at 35%, maintaining a flat trend over the past month with no change from the previous readings since March 4, 2026. This consistent level indicates a moderate risk of recession, but the lack of movement suggests stability in economic conditions rather than an immediate threat of downturn. The sustained probability below the 50% threshold implies that while caution is warranted, the risk of recession remains contained at this time.
What is the JPM Recession Prob?
JPMorgan's recession probability model combines signals from Treasury yields, credit spreads, equity volatility, and other market-based indicators to estimate the probability that the U.S. is entering or in a recession.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Market-based probability models synthesize the collective intelligence of millions of investors. When the model exceeds 50%, markets are pricing in a recession as the base case.
Historical Context
The model has historically spiked above 60% within months of recession onset. It provides a useful summary of how financial markets are pricing recession risk in real time.
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