High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS)
Track high-yield credit spreads (ICE BofA HY OAS). Widening spreads signal rising default risk and are a classic recession leading indicator.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >500 bps = credit stress
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value for high-yield credit spreads (HY OAS) is 320 basis points, showing a slight increase from 288 bps on February 22, 2026, and a recent peak of 328 bps on April 2, 2026. This upward trend, particularly from a low of 264 bps in late January, indicates a growing concern in credit markets, suggesting a potential increase in recession risk as spreads remain elevated and have not shown signs of reversing downward. The current level of 320 bps is above the midpoint of the recent range (264 to 328 bps), indicating heightened credit stress, and with a watch status, investors should remain vigilant as any further increase above 500 bps would signal significant credit distress.
What is the Credit Spreads?
The ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (HY OAS) measures the yield premium investors demand for holding high-yield corporate bonds over risk-free Treasuries. It reflects credit risk and default expectations.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Widening credit spreads signal that bond investors are demanding more compensation for default risk — a sign of deteriorating economic conditions. Spreads above 500bps have historically coincided with recessions.
Historical Context
Spreads blew out to 1,100bps during the 2008 crisis and 1,087bps during the March 2020 COVID crash. Rapid widening from compressed levels is particularly significant as a recession warning.
Related Indicators
Sahm Rule
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.
Yield Curve 2s10s
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since 1955.
Yield Curve 2s30s
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.
Get Daily Credit Spreads Alerts
Receive SMS and email alerts when this indicator changes status. Stay ahead of the market.