ISM Manufacturing PMI
Real-time ISM Manufacturing PMI tracking. Sub-50 readings signal manufacturing contraction and potential recession risk.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining employment = manufacturing weakness
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's manufacturing employment value is 12.6 million, reflecting a decline from a recent peak of 12.605 million on June 6, 2026. Over the past month, the trend has shifted downward, with employment decreasing steadily from 12.605 million to today's value, indicating a potential weakening in the manufacturing sector. This downward trend raises recession risks as declining employment in manufacturing suggests reduced production capacity and economic activity. The consistent drop below the recent range indicates that the sector is under stress, warranting close monitoring for further deterioration.
What is the ISM Manufacturing?
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index surveys manufacturing executives on new orders, production, employment, deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion; below 50 signals contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Sustained readings below 50 have preceded or coincided with every post-war recession. The manufacturing sector often leads the broader economy into downturns, making the PMI an early warning system.
Historical Context
The ISM PMI dropped below 50 before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Extended sub-50 readings (6+ months) have a strong correlation with GDP contraction.
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