ISM Manufacturing PMI
Real-time ISM Manufacturing PMI tracking. Sub-50 readings signal manufacturing contraction and potential recession risk.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining employment = manufacturing weakness
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's manufacturing employment stands at 12.6 million, showing a slight increase from 12.573 million over the past month, but remains below the recent trend range of 12.573 to 12.591 million. This indicates a stagnation in manufacturing employment, suggesting potential weakness in the sector. The flat trend, with only marginal increases, raises concerns about recession risk, as declining employment typically signals reduced manufacturing activity and economic slowdown. Investors should monitor this indicator closely, as sustained weakness could foreshadow broader economic challenges.
What is the ISM Manufacturing?
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index surveys manufacturing executives on new orders, production, employment, deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion; below 50 signals contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Sustained readings below 50 have preceded or coincided with every post-war recession. The manufacturing sector often leads the broader economy into downturns, making the PMI an early warning system.
Historical Context
The ISM PMI dropped below 50 before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Extended sub-50 readings (6+ months) have a strong correlation with GDP contraction.
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