ISM Manufacturing PMI
Real-time ISM Manufacturing PMI tracking. Sub-50 readings signal manufacturing contraction and potential recession risk.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Sub-50 = contraction
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 12590, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector. This value is well above the contraction threshold of 50, suggesting that recession risk remains low at this time. The positive trend in manufacturing activity signals continued economic growth.
What is the ISM Manufacturing?
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index surveys manufacturing executives on new orders, production, employment, deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion; below 50 signals contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Sustained readings below 50 have preceded or coincided with every post-war recession. The manufacturing sector often leads the broader economy into downturns, making the PMI an early warning system.
Historical Context
The ISM PMI dropped below 50 before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Extended sub-50 readings (6+ months) have a strong correlation with GDP contraction.
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