ISM Manufacturing PMI
Real-time ISM Manufacturing PMI tracking. Sub-50 readings signal manufacturing contraction and potential recession risk.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining employment = manufacturing weakness
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's manufacturing employment value is 12.6 million, reflecting a decline from 12.605 million observed at the end of June. This downward trend has been consistent over the past month, with employment remaining flat at 12.598 million since July 3, indicating stagnation in manufacturing activity. The persistent decline in manufacturing employment signals increasing recession risk, as it suggests weakening demand and potential contraction in the sector. With employment levels below the historical midpoint and no signs of recovery, the outlook for manufacturing remains concerning.
What is the ISM Manufacturing?
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index surveys manufacturing executives on new orders, production, employment, deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion; below 50 signals contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Sustained readings below 50 have preceded or coincided with every post-war recession. The manufacturing sector often leads the broader economy into downturns, making the PMI an early warning system.
Historical Context
The ISM PMI dropped below 50 before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Extended sub-50 readings (6+ months) have a strong correlation with GDP contraction.
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