U.S. Government Interest Expense
Track U.S. government interest payments on national debt. Rising interest expense crowds out fiscal stimulus capacity during downturns.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Fiscal doom loop
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, US Interest Expense has reached $950 billion per year, nearing the critical $1 trillion mark. This trend signals a fiscal doom loop, indicating increasing pressure on government finances and raising the risk of recession. Investors should be wary as this escalating debt burden could lead to economic instability.
What is the Interest Expense?
U.S. government interest expense is the annual cost of servicing the national debt. As debt levels and interest rates rise, this expense consumes an increasing share of federal revenue and GDP.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
High interest expense limits the government's ability to deploy fiscal stimulus during a recession. It also signals structural fiscal deterioration that can eventually force painful austerity or monetization.
Historical Context
Interest expense surpassed $1 trillion annually in 2024, exceeding defense spending for the first time. The combination of $34T+ in debt and elevated rates creates a structural fiscal headwind unlike anything in modern history.
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