Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >=0.50 triggers recession signal
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value of the Sahm Rule is 0.13, which has been on a downward trend since early May, dropping from a stable 0.2 for the first month of the period. This significant decline indicates a clear reversal in sentiment, as the indicator has remained at 0.13 for the past two weeks. With the current value well below the 0.50 trigger threshold, the recession risk remains low. The consistent decline from 0.2 to 0.13 suggests that while the economy is currently safe, any further deterioration could warrant closer monitoring for potential economic weakness.
What is the Sahm Rule?
The Sahm Rule identifies recessions when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more above its low from the previous 12 months. Created by economist Claudia Sahm, it provides a real-time recession signal based on labor market deterioration.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The Sahm Rule has correctly identified every U.S. recession since 1970 in real time — with zero false positives. When this indicator triggers, it historically means a recession has already begun or is imminent.
Historical Context
The indicator was formalized by Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm in 2019 as a way to trigger automatic fiscal stimulus. Unlike lagging indicators like GDP, the Sahm Rule provides near-instant recession detection using monthly employment data.
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