Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >=0.50 triggers recession signal
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Sahm Rule value is -0.03, indicating a significant decline from a stable level of 0.07 observed from July 15 to August 3, 2026. This downward shift, which began on August 8, suggests a clear reversal in economic conditions and a persistent negative trend over the past few weeks. Given that the current value remains well below the recession trigger of 0.50, the risk of recession is low at this time. However, the sustained decline indicates a potential weakening of economic conditions that could warrant close monitoring in the coming weeks.
What is the Sahm Rule?
The Sahm Rule identifies recessions when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more above its low from the previous 12 months. Created by economist Claudia Sahm, it provides a real-time recession signal based on labor market deterioration.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The Sahm Rule has correctly identified every U.S. recession since 1970 in real time — with zero false positives. When this indicator triggers, it historically means a recession has already begun or is imminent.
Historical Context
The indicator was formalized by Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm in 2019 as a way to trigger automatic fiscal stimulus. Unlike lagging indicators like GDP, the Sahm Rule provides near-instant recession detection using monthly employment data.
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