University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Track consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan survey. Readings below 60 have historically aligned with recessionary conditions.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <60 = recessionary sentiment
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index stands at 56.4, indicating weak consumer confidence and signaling recessionary sentiment. This value is below the critical threshold of 60, suggesting an increased risk of recession in the near term.
What is the Consumer Sentiment?
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surveys 500 households monthly on their financial conditions and expectations. It captures consumer willingness to spend, which drives roughly 70% of U.S. GDP.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Consumer spending is the backbone of the U.S. economy. When sentiment drops below 60, consumers typically pull back spending, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that can tip the economy into recession.
Historical Context
Sentiment plunged below 55 during the 2008 financial crisis and hit historic lows during the 2022 inflation shock. Sustained readings below 65 have coincided with or preceded multiple recessions.
Related Indicators
Sahm Rule
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.
Yield Curve 2s10s
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since 1955.
Yield Curve 2s30s
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.
Get Daily Consumer Sentiment Alerts
Receive SMS and email alerts when this indicator changes status. Stay ahead of the market.