University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Track consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan survey. Readings below 60 have historically aligned with recessionary conditions.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <60 = recessionary sentiment
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Consumer Sentiment value is 56.6, which has shown a slight upward trend from a consistent low of 56.4 over the past several weeks, marking a change of 0.2 points since March 28. Despite this minor increase, the sentiment remains below the critical threshold of 60, indicating persistent recessionary sentiment and weak consumer confidence. This trend suggests that recession risk remains elevated, as the prolonged period below 60 reflects a lack of optimism among consumers, which could hinder economic growth and spending in the near term.
What is the Consumer Sentiment?
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surveys 500 households monthly on their financial conditions and expectations. It captures consumer willingness to spend, which drives roughly 70% of U.S. GDP.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Consumer spending is the backbone of the U.S. economy. When sentiment drops below 60, consumers typically pull back spending, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that can tip the economy into recession.
Historical Context
Sentiment plunged below 55 during the 2008 financial crisis and hit historic lows during the 2022 inflation shock. Sustained readings below 65 have coincided with or preceded multiple recessions.
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