University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Track consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan survey. Readings below 60 have historically aligned with recessionary conditions.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <60 = recessionary sentiment
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Consumer Sentiment (UMich) value is 44.8, marking a significant decline from a stable 49.8 over the previous month, indicating a sharp downward trend. This represents a drop of 5 points, reflecting a crisis-level pessimism that has persisted since June 27, where the sentiment shifted from 49.8 to 44.8. This sustained decline below the critical threshold of 60 signals heightened recession risk, as consumer confidence is at its lowest in this period, suggesting that households are increasingly wary of economic conditions and likely to reduce spending, further exacerbating recessionary pressures.
What is the Consumer Sentiment?
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surveys 500 households monthly on their financial conditions and expectations. It captures consumer willingness to spend, which drives roughly 70% of U.S. GDP.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Consumer spending is the backbone of the U.S. economy. When sentiment drops below 60, consumers typically pull back spending, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that can tip the economy into recession.
Historical Context
Sentiment plunged below 55 during the 2008 financial crisis and hit historic lows during the 2022 inflation shock. Sustained readings below 65 have coincided with or preceded multiple recessions.
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