University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Track consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan survey. Readings below 60 have historically aligned with recessionary conditions.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <60 = recessionary sentiment
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Consumer Sentiment value is 49.8, marking a significant decline from a high of 56.6 on March 28, 2026. This downward trend has accelerated over the past month, with the index falling sharply from 53.3 on May 1 to its current crisis-level reading, indicating a shift towards recessionary sentiment as it has remained below the critical threshold of 60. This persistent decline signals heightened recession risk, as consumer pessimism is now at its lowest point in this timeframe, reflecting a broader lack of confidence in economic stability. The trend suggests that without a reversal, the economy may face significant challenges ahead.
What is the Consumer Sentiment?
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surveys 500 households monthly on their financial conditions and expectations. It captures consumer willingness to spend, which drives roughly 70% of U.S. GDP.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Consumer spending is the backbone of the U.S. economy. When sentiment drops below 60, consumers typically pull back spending, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that can tip the economy into recession.
Historical Context
Sentiment plunged below 55 during the 2008 financial crisis and hit historic lows during the 2022 inflation shock. Sustained readings below 65 have coincided with or preceded multiple recessions.
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