Recession Analysis & Reports
Weekly recession indicator reports, deep-dive analyses, and real-time market commentary powered by data.
Weekly Recession Report — July 26, 2026
This week's recession report highlights a **contained but uneven** risk landscape, with resilient labor data contrasting against signs of **late-cycle deterioration** in key indicators. While GDP growth remains positive at 2.1%, the economy faces rising fragility, suggesting that a modest shock could escalate into a more severe slowdown.
Recession Risk 38/100 — July 26, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE: labor-market hard data remains strong, but several forward-looking and sentiment indicators are flashing late-cycle slowdown risk. The Sahm Rule remains well below trigger (your read ~0.07; recent readings also show it safely below 0.50), and initial claims are exceptionally low at 187k for the week ending July 18, 2026 (4-week avg ~207.5k), inconsistent with an imminent recession. The yield curve has re-steepened (your 2s10s ~+0.36), removing the near-term “inversion shock,” while credit remains calm with high-yield OAS still tight (~2.85% on July 22, 2026). Offsetting that, growth is cooling (June payrolls +57k; Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 2026:Q2 ~+1.7% as of July 17), and leading/cyclical warnings persist (Temporary Help down sharply in your tracker; freight weakness; very depressed consumer sentiment and low savings).
Recession Risk 38/100 — July 24, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE, not elevated, because the highest-weight real-time labor triggers remain benign: the Sahm Rule is far below the 0.50 trigger (tracker: 0.07) and initial jobless claims just printed 187k for the week ending July 18, 2026 with the 4-week average at 207.5k. The yield curve has re-steepened (2s10s positive; tracker: +0.36), credit stress is absent (HY OAS ~2.86% on July 21, 2026), and financial conditions are loose (Chicago Fed NFCI negative per your tracker). Offsetting these “green” macro/market inputs, several late-cycle and real-economy leading signals are flashing yellow/red—temporary help is falling sharply, freight is weak, housing permits are below trend, and consumer sentiment is extreme (UMich 44.8). Net: the economy looks like a slowing expansion with rising downside tails rather than an imminent recession in the next 90 days.
Recession Risk 34/100 — July 23, 2026
Near-term (next 90 days) recession risk is MODERATE, not elevated, because the highest-signal labor triggers are still clearly benign: initial jobless claims fell to 208,000 for the week ending July 11, 2026, and the Fed’s preferred real-time recession tripwire (Sahm Rule) remains far below trigger. The yield curve has re-steepened to +0.36% (10y–2y) as of July 22, 2026, which reduces imminent recession odds versus an active inversion regime. Growth is slowing but still positive: June payroll gains were just +57,000 (July 2, 2026 BLS release), while manufacturing remains expansionary (ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.3 for June 2026). The main recession-adjacent warning is in soft demand/leading indicators—LEI fell -0.2% in June 2026 and consumer sentiment has been extremely depressed—raising downside risk if labor market cooling accelerates.
Recession Risk 34/100 — July 22, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE, not high, because the labor-market trigger set (Sahm Rule) is far from firing and layoffs remain very low (initial claims around 208k for the week ending July 11, 2026). ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/4ad283af1308077358aa2b038cb6e64d?utm_source=openai)) The yield curve is no longer an acute warning signal in the near term given meaningful re-steepening (your 2s10s +37 bps), and financial conditions remain loose with high equity prices and tight HY spreads (roughly ~270–275 bps in mid-July). ([macrolighthouse.com](https://macrolighthouse.com/data/?utm_source=openai)) The main recession-leading concerns are concentrated in “early cycle downshift” indicators (temporary help, freight) and an extreme collapse in household mood (your UMich 44.8 reading), which historically can foreshadow slower consumption but is not yet corroborated by claims/credit spreads. The Fed is on hold (June 17, 2026: target range held at 3.50%–3.75%), which reduces near-term policy-shock risk even as growth nowcasts are below trend (Atlanta Fed GDPNow ~1.7% for 2026:Q2 as of late July updates). ([federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm?utm_source=openai))
Recession Risk 38/100 — July 21, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE, not elevated, because the highest-signal labor triggers are not flashing: the Sahm Rule is well below trigger and layoffs remain low, with initial claims recently at 208k (week ending July 11, 2026). The Fed is on hold at 3.50%–3.75% (June 17, 2026), which reduces near-term policy shock risk, but growth is clearly decelerating (June 2026 payrolls +57k; Atlanta Fed GDPNow has been running around the ~1–2% range in early/mid-July). The main recessionary evidence is concentrated in forward-looking/“real economy” and sentiment proxies (temporary help weakness, freight weakness, very low consumer sentiment) rather than broad-based stress in credit or a rapid deterioration in unemployment. Net: slowdown risk is real, but the preponderance of real-time recession-confirming indicators is still not in place for the next 90 days.
Recession Risk 38/100 — July 20, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE (38/100): the labor market is slowing but not breaking, and financial conditions remain easy. The highest-weight real-time trigger (Sahm Rule) is not close to firing, and weekly initial jobless claims remain low (208K for the week ending July 11, 2026). The yield curve has re-steepened (2s10s positive), reducing near-term recession signal strength, while credit spreads remain tight—both inconsistent with an imminent contraction. The main macro fragilities are a sharp slowdown in payroll growth (June +57K), weak household buffer dynamics (very low savings rate), and clear “goods-economy” weakness (freight/temps) that could propagate if claims trend turns up or credit starts widening.
Weekly Recession Report — July 19, 2026
This week's recession report highlights a **late-cycle U.S. economy** characterized by a **growing gap between soft and hard data**, with low layoffs and expanding industrial production contrasting sharply with weak consumer sentiment and a slump in temporary help. Despite a mixed near-term recession signal, indicators suggest the economy is **losing forward momentum** as labor-market leading indicators raise concerns.
Recession Risk 34/100 — July 19, 2026
Near-term (90-day) recession risk is MODERATE because the highest-weight labor-market recession triggers are not flashing: the Sahm Rule remains far below its 0.50pp trigger (latest available through June 2026), and initial jobless claims are still low at 208k for the week ending July 11, 2026. Financial conditions are not signaling imminent stress—high-yield credit spreads remain tight (~2.7% OAS mid-July), equities are near highs, and the 2s10s curve has re-steepened to positive territory, which historically tends to occur late-cycle but does not, by itself, confirm a recession is imminent. The main risk is a growth downshift: Atlanta Fed GDPNow has been volatile but points to below-trend growth for Q2 2026 (recent updates ranging roughly ~1.2% to ~1.7% SAAR in early-to-mid July). Soft indicators are mixed: Conference Board LEI is modestly positive (+0.1% in May 2026) while consumer confidence remains subdued, implying the economy is slowing but not yet breaking over the next three months.
Recession Risk 38/100 — July 18, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE, not elevated, because the highest-weight real-time labor triggers remain clearly untripped: the Sahm Rule is ~0.07 (well below 0.50) and initial jobless claims are still low at 208k for the week ending July 11, 2026 (down 8k, lowest in ~10 weeks). The yield curve has re-steepened (2s10s about +37 bps as of July 17, 2026), which reduces near-term recession odds relative to an inversion regime. Forward growth looks below-trend but positive: Atlanta Fed GDPNow was tracking about 1.3% SAAR for 2026:Q2 as of July 8, 2026, while the Conference Board LEI has stabilized and rose +0.1% m/m in May 2026. The main recession-adjacent warning is the “soft underbelly” set of leading labor/real-economy signals (temporary help contraction, weak quits rate, slowing housing permits/starts) alongside extreme household pessimism (UMich sentiment was 44.8 in May 2026 and remains depressed even as it bounced in June/July).
Recession Risk 37/100 — July 17, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE, not imminent. The labor market remains resilient: initial jobless claims fell to 208k (week ending July 11, reported July 16) and June payrolls still grew (+57k) with unemployment at 4.2% (released July 2). The Fed held the policy rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, and Q2 growth tracking remains positive with Atlanta Fed GDPNow around ~1.3%–1.4% in early July. The key tension is between solid financial conditions/tight credit spreads and clear early-cycle warning signals (temporary help down, weak goods/freight proxies, very depressed consumer sentiment), which raises tail risk but does not yet meet a near-term recession trigger.
Recession Risk 34/100 — July 16, 2026
Near-term recession risk is MODERATE (34/100) because the highest-weight real-time labor triggers are not flashing: the Sahm Rule is well below the 0.50 trigger (RecessionPulse: 0.07), and weekly initial jobless claims remain low (215,000 for the week ending July 4, 2026). The yield curve has re-steepened meaningfully (2s10s roughly +0.4pp), which historically reduces imminent recession odds versus an active inversion, and credit conditions are not signaling acute stress (HY OAS tight; Chicago Fed NFCI loose per your tracker). Offsetting that, growth momentum is cooling (June 2026 payrolls +57k; Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 2026:Q2 down to ~1.3% on July 8), while several cyclical/leading series you provided are outright “DANGER” (temporary help, freight, copper/gold) and consumer sentiment is depressed. Netting it out: not an “imminent 90-day recession” setup, but the distribution is fattening on the downside if labor softening accelerates or credit tightens.
Showing 1–12 of 163 articles