Recession Analysis & Reports
Weekly recession indicator reports, deep-dive analyses, and real-time market commentary powered by data.
Recession Risk 37/100 — June 9, 2026
Near-term recession risk is MODERATE rather than elevated: the Sahm Rule is far from triggering (0.10 vs 0.50), and labor market flow data remain healthy with initial claims still low at 225k (week ending May 30, 2026). Payroll growth re-accelerated in the May 2026 Employment Situation (+172k jobs; unemployment rate 4.3%), while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 2026:Q2 is still positive (~3.0% as of June 1, down from 3.8% on May 28), consistent with continued expansion. Financial conditions and credit stress are not signaling imminent recession: high-yield OAS is tight (~2.74% on June 4, 2026) and broad financial conditions are near-normal/easy in level terms (NFCI negative). The main recession-risk contributors over the next 90 days are consumer fragility (very weak Michigan sentiment, low savings) and the shock-risk overlay from geopolitics/energy, which can flip hiring/capex quickly even if the baseline remains expansion.
Recession Risk 34/100 — June 8, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE because the highest-weight real-time labor trigger (Sahm Rule) remains well below recession territory while layoff indicators are still low. The May 2026 jobs report showed +172,000 nonfarm payrolls with unemployment at 4.3%, consistent with continued expansion rather than an imminent contraction. Forward-looking growth signals are mixed: the Conference Board LEI rose slightly (+0.1% in April 2026) and Atlanta Fed GDPNow still points to positive Q2 growth (3.0% as of June 1), but consumer mood is extremely depressed and goods-side indicators (freight/copper-gold) are flashing stress. Financial conditions are not signaling near-term recession (HY spreads tight, NFCI near normal), though modest bank tightening and depleted ON RRP reduce liquidity buffers and raise left-tail risk.
Weekly Recession Report — June 7, 2026
This week's recession report highlights a **two-speed** economy, with stable labor market and financial conditions contrasted by **late-cycle stress** in household psychology and goods activity. While recession risks are **pulled forward** by weakening hiring and consumer cash-flow fragility, key indicators like industrial production and low jobless claims suggest a **slow-growth** environment rather than an imminent downturn.
Recession Risk 38/100 — June 7, 2026
Near-term (90-day) recession risk is MODERATE because the highest-weight real-time labor trigger (Sahm Rule) is clearly not close to a recession signal, while financial conditions and credit spreads remain benign. The hard labor data are still expansionary: May 2026 payrolls rose +172k and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, while initial claims are only modestly higher at ~225k (week ending May 30). Growth is positive but below-trend (BEA Q1 2026 real GDP +1.6% SAAR; GDPNow is tracking a middling-to-solid Q2), and the Fed is still restrictive enough to cap demand even with the policy rate held at 3.50%–3.75%. The primary near-term tail risk is an energy/geopolitical shock (Iran conflict) feeding through to inflation, real incomes, and confidence, which is already extremely depressed (UMich May 2026 final 49.8).
Recession Risk 38/100 — June 6, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE (38/100): growth is slowing but not breaking. The highest-weight real-time trigger (Sahm Rule) remains well below recession territory (your reading: 0.10), and layoffs remain low with initial jobless claims at 225,000 for the week ending May 30, 2026. Hard activity data look soft but positive (BEA Q1 2026 real GDP second estimate: +1.6% SAAR), while model-based tracking still points to expansion (Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 2026:Q2: 3.0% as of June 1, 2026). The main macro vulnerability is consumer fragility—personal saving fell to 2.6% in April 2026—plus late-cycle labor-market cooling signals (temp help and quits) that can deteriorate quickly if financial conditions tighten or energy/geopolitics shock demand.
Recession Risk 34/100 — June 5, 2026
Near-term (next 90 days) recession risk is MODERATE, not elevated, because the highest-weight real-time labor trigger (Sahm Rule) is not close to signaling recession and initial jobless claims remain low at 225k for the week ending May 30, 2026. Financial conditions and credit are not pricing stress: high-yield spreads remain tight (your HY OAS ~275 bps) and the yield curve is positively sloped (2s10s about +0.47% as of June 1, 2026). Growth is slowing but still positive: the Conference Board LEI rose +0.1% in April 2026 and ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 54.0 in May (expansion). The main near-term risk is a consumer-led air pocket (very low savings rate and depressed sentiment) plus early-cycle labor cooling (temporary help weakness) that could spill into broader payrolls if it persists through June/July data.
Recession Risk 34/100 — June 4, 2026
Over the next 90 days, recession risk is MODERATE, not imminent. The highest-weight real-time trigger (Sahm Rule) remains well below recession-signal territory at ~0.13 (April 2026), and layoffs remain contained with initial claims still running in the low-200k range (e.g., ~215k reported in late May 2026). ([macronomy.io](https://macronomy.io/?utm_source=openai)) The yield curve has re-steepened (2s10s around +47 bps as of May 29, 2026), and the Conference Board LEI is no longer broadly deteriorating (LEI +0.1% m/m in April 2026 after -0.6% in March). ([yieldcurve.pro](https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes/2s10s?utm_source=openai)) The key tension is that household buffers look thin (personal saving rate down to 2.6% in April 2026) while temp help employment is already depressed, which can flip labor conditions quickly if demand softens. ([axios.com](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/28/consumer-spending-income-pce?utm_source=openai))
Recession Risk 44/100 — June 3, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is ELEVATED but not high: the labor-market trigger (Sahm Rule) is not close to firing (0.13), and weekly layoffs remain historically low with initial claims at 215k (4-week avg 209k) as of May 28, 2026. Hard growth is slowing but still positive: BEA’s second estimate shows real GDP +1.6% SAAR in 2026Q1 (released May 28, 2026) and Atlanta Fed GDPNow is tracking 2026Q2 at ~3.0% SAAR (updated June 1, 2026). The key tension is that forward-looking and “fragility” signals are flashing (Conference Board notes the LEI’s 6- and 12-month growth rates are negative; your tracker flags temp-help, freight, and consumer pessimism), while risk assets and financial conditions remain supportive. Net: baseline is continued expansion/slowdown, but the economy is late-cycle and vulnerable to a sentiment-to-spending rollover or an energy/geopolitical shock translating into real activity.
Recession Risk 38/100 — June 2, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE (38/100): the labor market is still not behaving like a pre-recession regime (initial jobless claims ~215k as of the May 28, 2026 release), and the Sahm Rule remains well below trigger, which is the single most important “no-recession-now” signal. Growth has slowed but remains positive (BEA Q1 2026 real GDP +1.6% SAAR, second estimate), while forward-looking activity data are mixed-to-improving (Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 2026:Q2 at 3.0% as of June 1, 2026; ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.0 in May, a four-year high). The main near-term macro risk is not an imminent broad contraction but a fragile, late-cycle configuration: consumers look increasingly constrained (low savings / rising delinquencies in your tracker), and financial/funding plumbing is less buffered (ON RRP largely depleted), increasing shock sensitivity. Net: no hard recession setup in the next 90 days unless a credit/liquidity or geopolitical shock hits, but the left tail is fatter than markets (low vol / high equity valuations) appear to price.
Recession Risk 44/100 — June 1, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is elevated but not high: labor market real-time triggers remain benign (Sahm Rule 0.13; initial claims 215k for the week ending May 23, 2026), which argues against an imminent contraction. However, forward-looking and cyclical indicators are flashing caution—Conference Board LEI remains weak (down in March, slight rebound in April to 97.4) and your 3Ds-rule trigger, temp-help employment decline, and freight weakness point to a deteriorating goods/late-cycle environment. Financial conditions are still loose (Chicago Fed NFCI around -0.52 in May 2026), and risk assets are near highs, reducing near-term recession odds but increasing vulnerability to a shock. The dominant 90-day tail risk is an inflation/energy-driven squeeze on real incomes and consumption (personal saving rate fell to 2.6% in April 2026) coupled with geopolitical uncertainty and a Fed that is holding rates at 3.50%–3.75%.
Weekly Recession Report — May 31, 2026
The Weekly Recession Risk Report for the week of May 31, 2026, indicates a **mixed** economic outlook, with strong industrial production and low unemployment suggesting **expansion**, yet emerging **late-cycle fragilities** and declining consumer confidence raise concerns about potential vulnerabilities. Although market indexes remain elevated, investor sentiment is shifting towards caution, signaling a possible slowdown in real growth.
Recession Risk 44/100 — May 31, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is elevated but not high: the labor market is still holding (initial claims 215k for the week ending May 23, 2026; April payrolls +115k and unemployment 4.3%), and broad financial conditions remain loose (Chicago Fed NFCI about -0.51 as of May 30, 2026). The top near-term recession trigger (Sahm Rule) is not close to tripping based on the unemployment rate level and recent trend, which materially caps immediate recession odds. Offsetting that, leading and cyclicals are deteriorating: your tracker flags a 3Ds-style LEI deterioration signal and a sharp contraction in temporary help, while ultra-low household saving and rising delinquencies raise the probability of an abrupt consumption downshift. The most plausible 90-day recession path is a confidence/energy-price shock that hits hiring and spending fast; absent that, the base case is sub-trend growth rather than outright contraction.
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