Recession Analysis & Reports
Weekly recession indicator reports, deep-dive analyses, and real-time market commentary powered by data.
Recession Risk 38/100 — October 24, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE: the highest-weight real-time labor triggers are not flashing (Sahm Rule is still 0.00 and initial claims are very low at 194k for the week ending Oct 17, 2026). The yield curve has re-steepened (2s10s positive), which reduces near-term recession odds versus an active inversion, while the Conference Board LEI was unchanged in September 2026 (99.6) rather than sliding deeper. Offsetting that, several classic late-cycle/early-downturn internals are deteriorating—temporary help is in a sharp decline, freight is negative, and consumer sentiment is near record lows (UMich final October 48.0 vs 48.1 in September). Financial conditions are not crisis-tight (Chicago Fed NFCI near normal) and high-yield spreads are only mildly elevated (~3.27% OAS as of Oct 21, 2026), but the growth impulse looks fragile and highly exposed to an energy/oil-price shock backdrop.
Recession Risk 38/100 — October 23, 2026
Near-term recession risk remains MODERATE rather than elevated because the highest-weight labor triggers are not flashing: the Sahm Rule is still well below the 0.50 trigger (your tracker shows 0.00) and weekly initial jobless claims just printed 194,000 for the week ending Oct 17, 2026 (very low, consistent with limited layoffs). The yield curve has re-steepened to about +31 bps on Oct 22, 2026 (10Y ~4.96% vs 2Y ~4.65%), reducing the classic inversion warning, and the Conference Board LEI was unchanged in September 2026 at 99.6 after a small August decline—i.e., not a persistent, broad-based deterioration. Offsetting this, the goods side is weakening (freight softness and your temp-help “danger” signal), consumer psychology is very poor (U.Mich preliminary October sentiment down to 46.3), and high-yield spreads have drifted higher versus late September/early October (~3.2%+). Net: the economy is slowing and more fragile than equity levels imply, but the labor market has not rolled over enough to justify a >40 score for the next 90 days.
Recession Risk 38/100 — October 22, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE, not elevated, because the highest-weight real-time labor recession trigger (Sahm Rule) is not close to tripping (RecessionPulse shows ~0.00) while initial jobless claims remain historically low at ~199k (week ended Oct 10, 2026). The yield curve has re-steepened (2s10s +0.32% on Oct 21, 2026), which reduces near-term recession odds versus an inversion regime, and the Conference Board LEI has not shown the sustained, broad deterioration typical of imminent recessions (LEI down only -0.1% in Aug 2026 after +0.2% in Jul). However, multiple cyclical warning lights are flashing: consumer sentiment is extremely depressed (U. Michigan prelim Oct 2026 at 46.3) and credit risk premia have risen (ICE BofA HY OAS ~323 bps as of Oct 15, 2026), while temp-help employment remains a classic leading-labor weak spot. Net: slowdown risk is real, but the data mix does not support a “recession probable within 90 days” call yet.
Recession Risk 38/100 — October 21, 2026
Near-term recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE, not high: the highest-weight real-time labor trigger (Sahm Rule) is not close to firing, and initial jobless claims remain historically low (199k for the week ending Oct 10, 2026). The yield curve has re-steepened (2s10s positive), which reduces immediate recession odds versus an inversion regime, but the post-inversion steepening still warrants caution. Leading indicators are mixed: the Conference Board LEI only edged down slightly (down 0.1% in August 2026), while market/real-economy internals (temp help weakness, freight softness, and very depressed consumer sentiment) flag a meaningful slowdown risk. Monetary policy has turned less supportive: the Fed raised the target range to 3.75%-4.00% on Sep 16, 2026 and minutes describe a still-resilient outlook alongside inflation concerns, implying a bias toward further restraint rather than preemptive easing.
Recession Risk 37/100 — October 20, 2026
Near-term (next 90 days) recession risk is MODERATE, not elevated, because the highest-weight labor triggers are still clearly non-recessionary: the Sahm Rule remains untriggered and weekly initial jobless claims are still running ~199k with a ~198k four-week average (week ended Oct 10, 2026). The yield curve has re-steepened (2s10s positive), which reduces classic inversion risk, but the direction likely reflects easing policy expectations and/or slower forward growth rather than a clean “all clear.” Growth is slowing but not collapsing: the NY Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is ~2.3%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 2026:Q3 has recently been around the mid-3% range in early October updates, implying continued expansion. The key tension is that “soft”/forward-looking signals (consumer confidence/sentiment and temp help/freight) are flashing stress while “hard” labor-market layoff data remain benign—this argues for a watchful, moderate-risk stance rather than a high-probability recession call over just 90 days.
Recession Risk 46/100 — October 19, 2026
Near-term recession risk over the next 90 days is elevated but not high: the labor market is still holding (initial claims 199k for the week ending Oct 10, 2026; unemployment 4.2% in September) and the Sahm Rule remains untriggered (your tracker shows 0.00). The key negative is late-cycle deterioration in leading labor/real-economy proxies (temporary help in sharp decline; freight weakness) alongside crisis-level consumer mood (UMich prelim Oct 2026 sentiment 46.3) and renewed inflation pressure (CPI 3.7% YoY in September), which raises the odds of additional Fed tightening. Financial conditions are not flashing systemic stress yet (NFCI about -0.50; HY OAS ~323 bps), but the combination of slowing trend growth and rising price pressure makes the downside asymmetry meaningfully worse into year-end. Bottom line: absent a sudden labor-market break, the base case is “soft-ish patch,” but the distribution is fat-tailed toward a growth accident if energy/geopolitics or policy tightening intensify.
Weekly Recession Report — October 18, 2026
October's recession report reveals a mixed economic landscape: while the labor market appears stable with low jobless claims, alarming signs such as weakness in Temporary Help Services and freight, alongside deteriorating household sentiment, indicate rising recession risks. Although immediate recession threats are low, the likelihood of a growth accident by 2027 has increased if current labor market trends continue.
Recession Risk 44/100 — October 18, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is ELEVATED but not high because the labor-market trigger set is still decisively “no recession”: initial jobless claims are 199,000 (week ended Oct 10, 2026) and the Sahm Rule remains near zero/negative in recent readings. The yield curve has re-steepened (2s10s positive), and financial conditions are easy-to-normal (Chicago Fed NFCI about -0.50 as of Oct 9, 2026), which argues against an imminent demand shock. However, growth momentum is soft (Sep 2026 payrolls +29,000) and multiple cyclicals are flashing early-warning (temporary help weakness, freight contraction, housing starts soft), while sentiment is extremely depressed (U. Michigan preliminary Oct 2026 sentiment 46.3; your tracker shows 51.7 crisis-level). The Fed’s September 16, 2026 hike to a 3.75%–4.00% target range increases policy-error risk into year-end even if current conditions are not recessionary.
Recession Risk 38/100 — October 17, 2026
Near-term (90-day) US recession risk is moderate, not elevated, because the highest-weight real-time labor triggers are still clearly benign: the Sahm Rule remains well below trigger and initial jobless claims are still ~199k (week ending Oct 10, 2026). The yield curve has re-steepened to a positive +35 bps 2s10s as of Oct 16, 2026, which reduces imminent-recession signal content versus an active inversion. However, the goods side is flashing caution: temporary help employment is in “danger,” freight is contracting, and housing starts are below trend. Confidence is the main macro fault line—Conference Board consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September and Michigan sentiment readings are deeply depressed—raising downside tail risk if spending cracks.
Recession Risk 34/100 — October 16, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE: the highest-weight real-time labor trigger (Sahm Rule) is not close to firing (tracker shows 0.00), and weekly initial claims remain very low at 199k for the week ending October 10, 2026. The yield curve has re-steepened (your 2s10s at +0.33), which reduces near-term recession signaling versus an inversion regime. Offsetting that, several classic early-cycle-to-late-cycle deterioration signals are flashing: temporary help is in sharp decline (DANGER), freight is contracting (DANGER), and consumer sentiment is deeply depressed (UMich readings in the low-50s per your tracker). Net: growth is slowing but the near-term recession “tripwires” (Sahm/claims/credit shock) are not yet in place, keeping 90-day recession odds below coin-flip but high enough to warrant defensive vigilance.
Recession Risk 44/100 — October 15, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is elevated but not high because the labor-market trigger that reliably marks imminent recession remains firmly inactive: the Sahm Rule is 0.00 (no trigger) and initial jobless claims are still extremely low at ~197K (week ending Oct 3, 2026). The curve is no longer inverted in the 2s10s (+37 bps) and HY credit spreads are contained around ~316 bps (3.16%), both consistent with “slowdown” rather than “break.” However, the growth-sensitive real-economy leading signals are deteriorating (temporary help down sharply; freight index negative) and consumer psychology is extremely weak (UMich sentiment in the mid‑40s to low‑50s range), creating asymmetric downside risk if hiring cracks. Fed policy is a modest headwind: the FOMC hiked 25 bps on Sep 16, 2026 to 3.75%–4.00%, and the Oct 7 minutes kept the door open to another hike later in 2026, raising the probability of a policy-mistake slowdown into year-end.
Recession Risk 38/100 — October 14, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE, not imminent, because the highest-weight labor-trigger gauges remain clearly untriggered: the Sahm Rule is still well below the 0.50 recession threshold, and initial jobless claims are holding near 197k (week ending Oct 3, reported Oct 8, 2026). ([worldstat.us](https://worldstat.us/indicator/us-sahm?utm_source=openai)) Growth is slowing but still positive: September payrolls rose only +29k with unemployment at 4.2% (Sep 2026), while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate still points to solid Q3 growth (3.6% as of Oct 8, 2026). ([bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022026.htm?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment-text&utm_source=openai)) The main macro risk is policy/inflation persistence: the Fed hiked on Sep 16 to a 3.75%-4.00% target range and minutes indicate another hike remains likely this year, raising the odds of a late-2026/early-2027 growth air-pocket. ([federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm?gsid=87b91d1f-16c6-4734-b6ca-fc4fd9bc7a42&utm_source=openai)) Credit is not flashing systemic stress (HY OAS ~3.24% on Oct 1), but cyclical-leading slices (temp help, freight, sentiment) are soft enough to keep the 90-day risk above “low.” ([equibles.com](https://equibles.com/economicdata/bamlh0a0hym2/2026-10-01?utm_source=openai))
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