Recession Analysis & Reports
Weekly recession indicator reports, deep-dive analyses, and real-time market commentary powered by data.
Recession Risk 47/100 — April 8, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is ELEVATED but not yet high because the top real-time labor trigger (Sahm Rule) is not close to firing and weekly claims remain low, even as leading indicators deteriorate. The Conference Board LEI is still falling (down 0.1% in January 2026 to 97.5), keeping the “3Ds” style warning signal active, consistent with an economy losing forward momentum. Financial conditions are not outright restrictive (Chicago Fed NFCI around -0.43 on the late-March print) and the yield curve is positively sloped (2s10s about +52 bps per your tracker), which argues against an imminent recession call. The main near-term tail risk is a fast rollover in hiring (temporary help, quits rate) colliding with tighter credit to households (delinquencies rising, savings low) and renewed inflation/oil shocks that delay Fed easing.
Recession Risk 49/100 — April 7, 2026
The next-90-day recession risk is **elevated but not high**: the labor-market trigger most correlated with “real-time recession onset” (Sahm Rule) is not close to firing (tracker shows 0.20), and weekly layoffs remain very low (initial claims 202k for week ending March 28, 2026). However, forward-looking growth signals are deteriorating—Conference Board consumer expectations remain below the 80 recession-warning threshold (72 in February 2026) and the NY Fed DSGE model still assigns a ~36% recession probability over the next year (March 2026 release). The Fed cut/held policy in a more accommodative zone (target range 3.50%–3.75% as of March 18, 2026), but the Iran-war-driven oil shock (Brent >$110) is a near-term stagflation impulse that can compress real incomes and confidence. Net, the economy looks like “slow-growth + shock risk,” where a recession within 90 days is not the base case, but the distribution has fattened meaningfully.
Recession Risk 44/100 — April 6, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is elevated but not high: labor market hard data remains firm while forward-looking and cyclically sensitive indicators are flashing caution. The Sahm Rule is not triggered (your read: 0.20), and initial jobless claims remain very low (202,000 for week ended March 28, 2026), both arguing against an imminent demand collapse. However, The Conference Board LEI has been falling for six consecutive months (latest available release: -0.1% m/m for January 2026, released March 19, 2026), and business-cycle-sensitive sentiment has deteriorated (UMich March 2026 sentiment 53.3). The Fed is holding policy steady at 3.50%–3.75% (March 18, 2026), which is supportive, but the risk is that persistent inflation/energy shocks and tightening real incomes push a late-spring growth air pocket.
Weekly Recession Report — April 5, 2026
The Weekly Recession Risk Report for April 5, 2026, indicates a **moderate** recession risk, with resilient labor markets and equity prices, yet several **late-cycle indicators** are signaling potential economic cooling. Despite a solid employment report showing **+178,000 jobs** added and a stable unemployment rate of **4.3%**, key metrics suggest a shift towards **weakening momentum** in certain sectors.
Recession Risk 47/100 — April 5, 2026
Near-term recession risk over the next 90 days is elevated but not high because the labor-market trigger is not close: the Sahm Rule is ~0.27 as of the March 2026 update, well below the 0.50 recession threshold, and weekly initial claims just printed 202k for the week ending March 28, 2026. The yield curve is not flashing imminent recession: the 2s10s is positive and the Fed is holding policy steady at 3.50%–3.75% (March 17–18, 2026), which supports financial conditions remaining broadly workable. However, forward/leading data are deteriorating: temp help is in a sharp downtrend, freight is contracting, and consumer sentiment remains weak, consistent with a growth scare rather than a clean re-acceleration. The key risk is an adverse momentum shift from “low-hire/low-fire” into outright labor-market weakening, especially if the Iran-war energy shock and tighter credit transmission hit margins and hiring intentions simultaneously.
Recession Risk 38/100 — April 4, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE (score: 38) with a clear growth slowdown but insufficient labor-market deterioration to justify an elevated/high call. The Sahm Rule is still safely below trigger (0.27 as of Feb 2026), and weekly initial jobless claims remain low (202k for the week ending Mar 28, 2026), both arguing against an imminent recession. However, the economy is absorbing a large adverse energy shock tied to the Iran war, with US gasoline prices having moved above $4/gal and inflation risk rising into the April 10 CPI print window. Credit conditions are not flashing acute stress (HY OAS ~3.13% as of Mar 6, 2026), but several cyclical/leading components (temporary help, freight, weak sentiment) point to downside growth risk into late Q2.
Recession Risk 38/100 — April 3, 2026
Near-term recession risk over the next 90 days is MODERATE, not high, because the labor-market recession trigger is clearly not firing: the Sahm Rule is ~0.27 versus a 0.50 trigger, and weekly initial claims just printed 202k for the week ending March 28, 2026. The yield curve backdrop is not recessionary in the classic sense (2s10s is positive), and high-yield credit is not signaling acute stress (ICE BofA HY OAS ~3.27% on March 19, 2026). Offsetting these supports, several forward-looking cyclical indicators are deteriorating (temporary help down to ~2.447M; weak consumer sentiment; soft housing permits; freight weakness), which raises the odds of a growth scare but still falls short of “recession probable within 90 days.” The main macro tail risk is an oil/geopolitical-driven squeeze (Iran war) that could hit real incomes and confidence fast enough to spill into hiring by late Q2.
Recession Risk 34/100 — April 2, 2026
Near-term recession risk is MODERATE over the next 90 days: the labor market is still holding (initial claims around 210K for the week ending March 21, 2026) and the Sahm Rule remains well below the 0.50 trigger (0.27 as of Feb 2026, next update due April 3, 2026). The yield curve is no longer inverted in the key 2s10s segment (your tracker shows +0.51), which materially reduces imminent recession odds. Offsetting that, forward-looking/real-economy frictions are rising: temporary help is in DANGER, freight is in DANGER, consumer sentiment is weak, and the Iran-war oil shock is a clear late-Q1/early-Q2 growth and inflation headwind. With the Fed holding policy steady at 3.50%–3.75% on March 18, 2026 and emphasizing uncertainty, the risk is less an immediate recession and more a “soft patch” that could turn if labor cracks or credit spreads gap wider.
Recession Risk 52/100 — April 1, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is ELEVATED but not yet high: the Sahm Rule remains clearly untriggered (~0.27), and initial jobless claims are still low (~210K, four-week avg ~210.5K), which argues against an imminent, broad-based labor-market break. The strongest negative macro signal is the Conference Board LEI: the index fell sharply in January 2026 (−1.3% m/m; ~−2.6% annualized), consistent with a leading-indicator recession warning. Labor conditions are deteriorating at the margin—February 2026 payrolls fell by 92K and unemployment rose to 4.4%—but the “low-hire, low-fire” pattern implies a slower-moving downturn unless a shock accelerates layoffs. The dominant near-term tail risk is the Iran-war energy shock (Brent >$100, U.S. gasoline >$4/gal reported March 31–April 1), which can tighten real incomes quickly and create policy constraint for the Fed if inflation re-accelerates.
Recession Risk 44/100 — March 31, 2026
Over the next 90 days, recession risk is **elevated but not high**, with labor-market “hard” data still inconsistent with an imminent downturn. The Sahm Rule remains safely below trigger (your read: 0.27), and initial jobless claims are still running near ~205k–210k in mid-to-late March 2026—levels historically consistent with continued expansion. However, growth is running near stall speed (your GDP ~0.7% QoQ saar; Atlanta Fed GDPNow around ~1.8% for 2026:Q1 as of March 13), and multiple forward/credit/vol signals (VIX ~31, HY OAS ~3.27%) are flashing stress. The dominant swing factor for the next 90 days is the inflation/growth shock channel from the Iran war and associated rates/term-premium volatility, which raises tail risk even if baseline activity holds.
Recession Risk 44/100 — March 30, 2026
Near-term recession risk is elevated but not high because the key real-time labor trigger remains untripped: the Sahm Rule is ~0.27 (Feb 2026), well below the 0.50 recession threshold. However, the growth impulse is deteriorating—February payrolls contracted by 92k and the unemployment rate has drifted up to 4.4%—while leading indicators are soft (Conference Board LEI down 0.1% in January 2026) and market-based stress is rising (VIX elevated; HY OAS ~3.21%). The yield curve is no longer inverted (2s10s positive), which reduces classic late-cycle “policy overtightening” recession odds, but credit + leading indicators are pointing to a meaningful slowdown. Base case for the next 90 days is “slowdown scare with rising recession tail risk,” not an outright recession call.
Weekly Recession Report — March 29, 2026
The Weekly Recession Report for the week of March 29, 2026, indicates a **mixed economic backdrop** with signs of **continued growth**, despite emerging **leading-cycle warnings** and a **bifurcated policy environment**. Key indicators show industrial production expanding, but risks from a declining temporary help sector and weak freight conditions suggest caution as the economy navigates potential late-cycle complacency.
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