GDP Growth Forecast
Track U.S. GDP growth rate and nowcast estimates. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional recession definition.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0% = recession
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's GDP Growth (QoQ Annualized) value is 2.0%, reflecting a slight decline from a recent peak of 2.1% observed on multiple occasions in early May. The trend has been generally flat over the past few weeks, with fluctuations between 2.1% and 2.0%, indicating a slowing momentum in economic growth. This trend suggests an increased risk of recession, as the GDP growth is now closer to the critical threshold of 0%. The recent decline from 2.1% to 2.0% signals a potential inflection point, warranting close monitoring for further deterioration.
What is the GDP Growth?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate is the primary measure of economic expansion or contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional (though not official) definition of recession. Real-time nowcast models like the Atlanta Fed GDPNow provide forward-looking estimates before official data.
Historical Context
The U.S. experienced two consecutive negative GDP quarters in early 2022, though the NBER did not declare a recession. Official recessions are determined by a broader set of indicators including employment and income.
Related Indicators
Jobless Claims
Weekly initial jobless claims tracker. Rising claims above 300K sustained signal labor market weakening and recession risk.
Consumer Sentiment
Track consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan survey. Readings below 60 have historically aligned with recessionary conditions.
Fed Funds Rate
Track the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate. Rate cuts after sustained hiking cycles often signal late-cycle recession risk.
Get Daily GDP Growth Alerts
Receive SMS and email alerts when this indicator changes status. Stay ahead of the market.