GDP Growth Forecast
Track U.S. GDP growth rate and nowcast estimates. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional recession definition.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0% = recession
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's GDP Growth (QoQ Annualized) stands at 2.2%, maintaining a flat trend over the past three weeks with no change from the previous readings. This consistent value suggests a stable economic environment, but the lack of upward momentum indicates a slowing growth trajectory. While the current level of 2.2% is above the recession trigger of 0%, the stagnant trend raises concerns about potential future economic weakness, as sustained flat growth can precede a downturn. Investors should remain vigilant for any signs of deterioration in economic conditions.
What is the GDP Growth?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate is the primary measure of economic expansion or contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional (though not official) definition of recession. Real-time nowcast models like the Atlanta Fed GDPNow provide forward-looking estimates before official data.
Historical Context
The U.S. experienced two consecutive negative GDP quarters in early 2022, though the NBER did not declare a recession. Official recessions are determined by a broader set of indicators including employment and income.
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