GDP Growth Forecast
Track U.S. GDP growth rate and nowcast estimates. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional recession definition.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0% = recession
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the GDP growth forecast stands at 24,111.83, indicating solid growth and a safe economic environment. This positive trend suggests that the risk of a recession is low, as the forecast remains well above the critical threshold of 0%.
What is the GDP Growth?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate is the primary measure of economic expansion or contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional (though not official) definition of recession. Real-time nowcast models like the Atlanta Fed GDPNow provide forward-looking estimates before official data.
Historical Context
The U.S. experienced two consecutive negative GDP quarters in early 2022, though the NBER did not declare a recession. Official recessions are determined by a broader set of indicators including employment and income.
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