GDP Growth Forecast
Track U.S. GDP growth rate and nowcast estimates. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional recession definition.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0% = recession
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's GDP growth (QoQ annualized) is 2.1%, which has shown a fluctuating trend over the past few weeks, with a notable increase from a low of 0.7% on March 20 to the current level. However, the recent pattern indicates instability, with several oscillations between 0.7% and 2.1%, suggesting a slowing economic momentum. This trend raises concerns about recession risk, as the frequent dips to 0.7% indicate vulnerability; if this pattern continues, the economy could be at risk of contracting, especially if growth falls below the critical threshold of 0%.
What is the GDP Growth?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate is the primary measure of economic expansion or contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional (though not official) definition of recession. Real-time nowcast models like the Atlanta Fed GDPNow provide forward-looking estimates before official data.
Historical Context
The U.S. experienced two consecutive negative GDP quarters in early 2022, though the NBER did not declare a recession. Official recessions are determined by a broader set of indicators including employment and income.
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