GDP Growth Forecast
Track U.S. GDP growth rate and nowcast estimates. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional recession definition.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0% = recession
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's GDP Growth (QoQ Annualized) value is 1.5%, marking a significant decline from a consistent 2.1% over the previous month. This downward trend indicates a slowing economy, as the growth rate has dropped sharply since August 1, where it began to decline from its peak. The persistent decrease in GDP growth raises recession risk, particularly as the current value is nearing the critical threshold of 0%. With the recent readings showing a clear downward trajectory, the economy is exhibiting signs of potential contraction.
What is the GDP Growth?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate is the primary measure of economic expansion or contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional (though not official) definition of recession. Real-time nowcast models like the Atlanta Fed GDPNow provide forward-looking estimates before official data.
Historical Context
The U.S. experienced two consecutive negative GDP quarters in early 2022, though the NBER did not declare a recession. Official recessions are determined by a broader set of indicators including employment and income.
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