GDP Growth Forecast
Track U.S. GDP growth rate and nowcast estimates. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional recession definition.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0% = recession
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's GDP Growth (QoQ Annualized) value is 1.6%, which has been on a downward trend from a high of 2% on May 21, 2026, to its current level, indicating a significant deceleration. Over the past three weeks, the indicator has consistently hovered at 1.6%, suggesting a stagnation in growth momentum. This trend of slowing growth raises concerns about recession risk, as the current value is at the lower end of the recent range (1.6% to 2.1%) and shows no signs of recovery. With the trigger point for recession set at below 0%, the sustained decline in GDP growth warrants close monitoring for potential economic downturn signals.
What is the GDP Growth?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate is the primary measure of economic expansion or contraction.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional (though not official) definition of recession. Real-time nowcast models like the Atlanta Fed GDPNow provide forward-looking estimates before official data.
Historical Context
The U.S. experienced two consecutive negative GDP quarters in early 2022, though the NBER did not declare a recession. Official recessions are determined by a broader set of indicators including employment and income.
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