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50 recession and macro indicators from FRED, Treasury, and financial APIs — analyzed daily. The same signals Wall Street quant desks monitor, in your pocket. Free to start.
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50 indicators. 8 categories.
Zero noise.
From NBER core recession signals to real-time freight data — every indicator that has correctly predicted recessions since 1970, organized for daily decision-making.
Primary Recession Signals
Sahm Rule, unemployment rate, industrial production, real personal income, JOLTS quits rate, and temp help services — the NBER's core indicators.
Yield Curve & Market Signals
2s10s and 3m10y spreads, VIX, NFCI, copper-gold ratio, NY Fed recession probability, and credit spreads. The quant's toolkit.
Conference Board LEI & GDP
The 3Ds rule (diffusion, depth, duration) plus Atlanta Fed GDPNow for real-time GDP tracking. When both flash red, act fast.
Housing & Construction
Building permits and housing starts — residential investment leads the business cycle by 3-5 quarters. The earliest physical-economy signal.
Consumer Credit Stress
Savings rate, credit card delinquencies, SLOOS lending standards, and debt service ratio. Know when consumers are tapped out.
Business Activity
Corporate profits, ISM Manufacturing PMI, NFIB small business optimism, and inventory-to-sales ratio. The pulse of the real economy.
Real-Time / High-Frequency
Freight index, M2 money supply, ON RRP facility, and SOS recession indicator. Weekly and daily signals for the fastest edge.
Stock Screener (Pro)
Daily scan for stocks below 200 EMA with RSI <30 and P/E <15. Value dividend picks with P/E <12 near support. Sector rotation signals.
Daily Email Briefing (Free)
Concise, actionable morning email briefings with all 50 indicators. SMS alerts available on the Pulse plan.
Threshold Alerts
Instant notification when any indicator crosses a critical threshold. Know the moment the Sahm Rule triggers or the VIX spikes.
AI Risk Assessment (Pulse)
Multi-model recession risk score combining all 50 indicators into a single probability estimate. Available on Pulse and above.
Real-Time Dashboard
All 50 indicators at a glance, organized by category. Financial-terminal aesthetic designed for quick daily check-ins. Free forever.
40 indicators. Real-time signals.
Live data from FRED, Treasury, and financial APIs — updated daily.
Primary Indicators
Secondary Indicators
Housing & Construction
Business Activity
Consumer Credit Stress
Market Signals
Liquidity
Real-Time / High-Frequency
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AI-Powered Recession Reports
Recession Risk 47/100 — April 28, 2026
Near-term recession risk is ELEVATED but not high: the Sahm Rule is clearly not triggered (0.20 in March 2026), and layoffs remain low with initial jobless claims at 214k for the week ending April 18, 2026. The yield curve backdrop is non-recessionary in the classic sense (your 2s10s is positive/normal), and risk assets are still making new highs, which argues against an imminent 90-day contraction. However, forward-looking and “under-the-hood” signals are deteriorating: consumer sentiment is collapsing (UMich April final 49.8, down from 53.3 in March) and inflation expectations have jumped, while credit/household stress metrics (delinquencies, low savings) and select leading labor indicators (temps, quits) point to worsening momentum. The main tail risk over the next 90 days is an energy-driven growth shock from the Iran/Hormuz situation that lifts inflation and forces the Fed to stay restrictive longer even as real activity cools.
Recession Risk 44/100 — April 27, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is ELEVATED but not high because the highest-weight real-time trigger (Sahm Rule) is still safely below recession territory (~0.27 vs 0.50 trigger), while weekly initial jobless claims remain low (214k for week ending Apr 18). The yield curve is no longer inverted (2s10s about +50 to +53 bps as of mid-April), which materially reduces near-term recession odds versus 2023–2024 style setups. However, leading indicators are flashing yellow-to-red: the Conference Board LEI has been weak enough to keep the “3Ds” recession signal in play, and forward-looking labor demand proxies (temporary help) are deteriorating. Net: the economy looks like it is skirting stall speed—more consistent with a growth scare/slowdown than a clean recession start inside 90 days, but downside tail risk is rising.
Weekly Recession Report — April 26, 2026
Recession risk remains elevated but not imminent as the economy shows a split between healthy labor-market data and signs of late-cycle stress, including rising unemployment and consumer pessimism. While financial conditions are stable, the key concern is whether the softening labor market will lead to a self-reinforcing slowdown.
Recession Risk 47/100 — April 26, 2026
Over the next 90 days, recession risk is ELEVATED but not yet high because the labor-market trigger (Sahm Rule) remains well below the 0.5 threshold (about 0.20 as of March 2026) while initial claims are still low at 214k for the week ending April 18, 2026. The yield curve is no longer inverted (your 2s10s ~+0.51), which materially lowers near-term recession odds versus classic pre-recession setups. However, the Conference Board LEI has been falling for multiple months (six straight months through January 2026 per Conference Board technical notes), and several late-cycle internal labor signals (quits rate ~1.9–2.0% and temp help contraction) point to a deteriorating hiring engine that can turn quickly. Consumer sentiment is extremely weak (UMich final April 2026: 52.2; previous month 53.3), which raises downside risk to real consumption even if equities remain near highs.
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Real-time recession dashboard — no credit card required
- 50 recession & macro indicators tracked
- Real-time dashboard access
- Daily email recession briefing
- Indicator status, signals & trends
- Historical context for every reading
- Daily recession risk score
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Frequently asked questions
Everything you need to know about recession indicators and RecessionPulse.
RecessionPulse monitors 50 recession and macro indicators across 8 categories: Primary (Sahm Rule, unemployment, industrial production, JOLTS quits, temp help, SOS indicator), Secondary (ISM PMI, consumer sentiment, fed funds rate, initial claims), Housing (building permits, housing starts, new home sales), Business Activity (corporate profits, NFIB, inventory-to-sales, retail sales, durable goods, capacity utilization), Credit Stress (savings rate, credit card delinquency, SLOOS, debt service ratio, consumer credit, US National Debt, Debt-to-GDP ratio), Market (yield curves, VIX, NFCI, copper-gold ratio, gold-silver ratio, credit spreads, DXY, NY Fed & JPM recession probability, emerging markets, S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P 500/GDP, DJIA/GDP, NASDAQ/GDP Buffett Indicator variants, S&P 500 P/E, DJIA P/E, NASDAQ P/E ratios), Liquidity (M2 money supply, ON RRP, bank unrealized losses, US interest expense), and Real-Time (freight index, GDPNow).
Yes. The full dashboard with all 50 indicators, signals, trends, historical context, and daily email briefings is completely free — no credit card required. The Pulse plan ($6.99/mo) adds AI recession risk assessment, SMS alerts, and threshold notifications. Pulse Pro ($9.99/mo) adds the stock screener with value picks, sector rotation signals, and portfolio defense positioning.
The Sahm Rule identifies recessions when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises 0.50 percentage points or more above its low from the previous 12 months. Created by economist Claudia Sahm, it has correctly signaled every recession since 1970 in real time. RecessionPulse tracks this indicator daily.
Yield curve inversion occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread inverting has preceded every US recession since 1955, with only one false signal. Historically, recessions follow 6–18 months after un-inversion (when the curve steepens back to normal). RecessionPulse tracks both the 2s10s and 3m10y spreads.
The 3Ds Rule evaluates three conditions in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Depth (6-month growth rate below -4.3%), Diffusion (more than half of components declining), and Duration (sustained decline over multiple months). When all three trigger simultaneously, historical recession probability exceeds 85%.
Tier 1 (NBER Core & Leading): Building permits, real personal income, industrial production, JOLTS quits rate, NFCI, NY Fed recession probability, and temp help services. Tier 2 (Business & Consumer): Corporate profits, savings rate, VIX, GDPNow, credit card delinquency, NFIB small business optimism, and copper-gold ratio, and gold-silver ratio. Tier 3 (Confirming & High-Frequency): Freight index, housing starts, inventory-to-sales ratio, SLOOS lending standards, SOS recession indicator, and debt service ratio.
RecessionPulse has three tiers: Free (full dashboard with all 50 indicators plus daily email briefings), Pulse at $6.99/month (adds AI recession risk assessment, SMS alerts, and threshold notifications), and Pulse Pro at $9.99/month (adds stock screener alerts, value picks, sector rotation signals, and portfolio defense positioning). Cancel anytime. No contracts.
No. RecessionPulse is strictly an informational service. We aggregate publicly available economic data and present it in a clear format. Nothing we provide constitutes investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
The quants are watching. Are you?
Every recession in the last 50 years was preceded by the exact indicators we track. 50 signals across 8 categories — free to access. The question isn't if the next downturn is coming — it's when. Be positioned before it arrives.
Free forever. Paid plans from $6.99/mo. Not investment advice.