Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
Track the Conference Board LEI and the 3Ds Rule. When depth, diffusion, and duration align, recession probability exceeds 85%.
Current Value
Trigger Level: 3Ds Rule: diffusion <50 & growth <-4.3%
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value of the Conference Board LEI is 1.7, reflecting a significant upward trend from a low of -0.3 on April 19, 2026, with consistent readings at 1.72 for the past several weeks. This sharp recovery indicates a reversal from negative growth, suggesting improving economic conditions. Given the positive trajectory and the current value above the recent range, recession risk appears low at this moment, despite the diffusion index being below 50 and growth rates being negative. The sustained positive readings signal a potential stabilization in the economy, reducing immediate concerns of a downturn.
What is the Conference Board LEI?
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) aggregates 10 economic components into a single composite designed to signal turning points in the business cycle 7 months ahead. The 3Ds Rule evaluates its depth, diffusion, and duration.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
When all three Ds trigger simultaneously — depth (6-month growth below -4.3%), diffusion (>50% of components declining), and duration (sustained decline) — historical recession probability exceeds 85%.
Historical Context
The LEI has declined before every recession since its creation. The 3Ds framework was developed to filter out false signals and has successfully identified genuine recessions while avoiding false alarms.
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