Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
Track the Conference Board LEI and the 3Ds Rule. When depth, diffusion, and duration align, recession probability exceeds 85%.
Current Value
Trigger Level: 3Ds Rule: diffusion <50 & growth <-4.3%
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value of the Conference Board LEI is -0.3, marking a significant decline from a high of 1.72 on March 4, 2026. This downward trend, characterized by a series of negative readings since March 18, indicates a sharp reversal and a clear acceleration in negative momentum, triggering a recession signal under the 3Ds Rule. The persistent negative readings below the threshold of -4.3% and diffusion below 50 suggest an increased risk of recession, as the economy is showing signs of contraction and weakening growth prospects.
What is the Conference Board LEI?
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) aggregates 10 economic components into a single composite designed to signal turning points in the business cycle 7 months ahead. The 3Ds Rule evaluates its depth, diffusion, and duration.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
When all three Ds trigger simultaneously — depth (6-month growth below -4.3%), diffusion (>50% of components declining), and duration (sustained decline) — historical recession probability exceeds 85%.
Historical Context
The LEI has declined before every recession since its creation. The 3Ds framework was developed to filter out false signals and has successfully identified genuine recessions while avoiding false alarms.
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