Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
Track the Conference Board LEI and the 3Ds Rule. When depth, diffusion, and duration align, recession probability exceeds 85%.
Current Value
Trigger Level: 3Ds Rule: diffusion <50 & growth <-4.3%
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is at -0.3, indicating a recession signal is active due to the 3Ds Rule being triggered. This negative value reflects a concerning trend, with diffusion below 50 and growth rates declining more than 4.3%, suggesting heightened recession risk in the near term.
What is the Conference Board LEI?
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) aggregates 10 economic components into a single composite designed to signal turning points in the business cycle 7 months ahead. The 3Ds Rule evaluates its depth, diffusion, and duration.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
When all three Ds trigger simultaneously — depth (6-month growth below -4.3%), diffusion (>50% of components declining), and duration (sustained decline) — historical recession probability exceeds 85%.
Historical Context
The LEI has declined before every recession since its creation. The 3Ds framework was developed to filter out false signals and has successfully identified genuine recessions while avoiding false alarms.
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