Macro glossary
Recession Indicator
Any data series whose behavior reliably precedes or confirms a recession.
Definition
Recession indicators fall into three groups: leading (peak before the economy turns), coincident (peak with the economy), and lagging (peak after the economy turns). Useful indicators must have a track record of historical accuracy, a clear economic mechanism, timely availability, and low revision risk.
Related indicators
Sahm Rule
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule ha
Yield Curve 2s10s
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have pre
Conference Board LEI
Track the Conference Board LEI and the 3Ds Rule. When depth, diffusion, and duration align, recessio
Related terms
Sahm Rule
A recession indicator that triggers when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its 12-month low.
Yield Curve Inversion
When short-term Treasury yields exceed long-term Treasury yields, signaling elevated recession risk.
Leading Economic Index (LEI)
The Conference Board's composite index of 10 leading economic indicators.
Recession
A significant, broad-based, sustained decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.