Macro glossary
Recession
A significant, broad-based, sustained decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.
Definition
A recession is a meaningful contraction in economic activity that shows up across production, employment, real income, and trade. In the United States, recessions are officially dated by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.' The popular 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth' rule of thumb often agrees with NBER but is not the official definition.
Origin: Julius Shiskin (1974) popularized the two-quarter rule; NBER formally dates cycles.
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Sahm Rule
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Yield Curve 2s10s
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Conference Board LEI
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Unemployment Rate
Track the U.S. unemployment rate. Rising unemployment above 0.5% from cycle lows triggers recession
Related terms
NBER Recession Dating
The process by which the National Bureau of Economic Research officially identifies the peaks and troughs of US business cycles.
Soft Landing
A scenario in which monetary policy slows inflation without causing a recession.
Stagflation
The simultaneous occurrence of high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand.
Recession Indicator
Any data series whose behavior reliably precedes or confirms a recession.