Macro glossary
Soft Landing
A scenario in which monetary policy slows inflation without causing a recession.
Definition
A soft landing is the Fed's stated goal during hiking cycles: bringing inflation back to target while keeping unemployment from spiking. Historically rare — the Fed has arguably achieved only one unambiguous soft landing (1994-95). Most tightening cycles end in recession with a 12-24 month lag from the final hike.
Related indicators
Fed Funds Rate
Track the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate. Rate cuts after sustained hiking cycles often s
Unemployment Rate
Track the U.S. unemployment rate. Rising unemployment above 0.5% from cycle lows triggers recession
Sahm Rule
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule ha