Macro glossary
NBER Recession Dating
The process by which the National Bureau of Economic Research officially identifies the peaks and troughs of US business cycles.
Definition
NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee looks at depth, diffusion, and duration across real GDP, real gross domestic income, real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payrolls, household employment, industrial production, and real manufacturing/wholesale-retail sales. The committee typically dates peaks and troughs with a 6-18 month lag once all revised data are available.
Related indicators
Unemployment Rate
Track the U.S. unemployment rate. Rising unemployment above 0.5% from cycle lows triggers recession
Industrial Production
Monitor the Industrial Production Index — a core NBER recession indicator tracking real output of ma
Real Income (ex Transfers)
Track real personal income excluding transfers — the NBER's top recession indicator. Declining organ