Industrial Production Index
Monitor the Industrial Production Index — a core NBER recession indicator tracking real output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining = manufacturing/mining weakness
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Industrial Production Index stands at 102.6, reflecting a steady increase from a low of 102.4963 on June 3. The index has been flat at 102.6475 for over two weeks before this slight uptick, indicating a potential reversal in the recent stagnation and suggesting a modest expansion in production. This trend signals a reduced recession risk, as the recent stability followed by a slight increase indicates resilience in industrial activity, countering earlier concerns of manufacturing and mining weakness. The upward movement from the previous plateau suggests a strengthening economic environment.
What is the Industrial Production?
The Industrial Production Index (IPI) measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors. Published monthly by the Federal Reserve, it is indexed to a base year of 2017=100.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Industrial production is one of four key indicators the NBER monitors during recessions. Declines in IP have preceded or coincided with every post-war recession, making it a critical measure of real economic activity beyond the services sector.
Historical Context
IP fell over 17% during the 2008 recession and 12.7% during the COVID shock. Sustained declines of 2%+ from peak typically indicate recessionary conditions have already begun.
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