Industrial Production Index
Monitor the Industrial Production Index — a core NBER recession indicator tracking real output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining = manufacturing/mining weakness
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Industrial Production Index stands at 103.0, reflecting a notable increase from a flat range of 102.6395 over the previous month. This marks a significant upward shift, with production expanding after a prolonged period of stagnation, as evidenced by the rise from 102.6395 on August 5 to the current value. The upward trend in industrial production suggests a reduced risk of recession, indicating that manufacturing and mining sectors are beginning to recover. The acceleration in production signals strengthening economic activity, which is a positive sign for future growth.
What is the Industrial Production?
The Industrial Production Index (IPI) measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors. Published monthly by the Federal Reserve, it is indexed to a base year of 2017=100.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Industrial production is one of four key indicators the NBER monitors during recessions. Declines in IP have preceded or coincided with every post-war recession, making it a critical measure of real economic activity beyond the services sector.
Historical Context
IP fell over 17% during the 2008 recession and 12.7% during the COVID shock. Sustained declines of 2%+ from peak typically indicate recessionary conditions have already begun.
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