Industrial Production Index
Monitor the Industrial Production Index — a core NBER recession indicator tracking real output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining = manufacturing/mining weakness
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Industrial Production Index stands at 102.6, reflecting a slight decline from the previous value of 102.6475 observed on July 3. Over the past month, the index has been relatively flat, with values consistently hovering around 102.6395, indicating a stagnation in production levels and potential weakness in manufacturing and mining sectors. This trend suggests a low recession risk currently, as the index remains above the midpoint of 102.6395, but the recent flat trajectory signals a lack of expansion momentum, which could be a precursor to economic slowdown if the stagnation persists.
What is the Industrial Production?
The Industrial Production Index (IPI) measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors. Published monthly by the Federal Reserve, it is indexed to a base year of 2017=100.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Industrial production is one of four key indicators the NBER monitors during recessions. Declines in IP have preceded or coincided with every post-war recession, making it a critical measure of real economic activity beyond the services sector.
Historical Context
IP fell over 17% during the 2008 recession and 12.7% during the COVID shock. Sustained declines of 2%+ from peak typically indicate recessionary conditions have already begun.
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