Industrial Production Index
Monitor the Industrial Production Index — a core NBER recession indicator tracking real output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining = manufacturing/mining weakness
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value of the Industrial Production Index is 102.6, reflecting a steady increase from a low of 102.3412 on February 28, 2026, to its current level, indicating a positive trend in production over the past month. This represents a notable acceleration as the index has risen consistently, with a recent peak of 102.551 reached on April 5, 2026, before today's value. This upward trajectory in industrial production suggests a reduced risk of recession, as expanding production typically signals confidence in economic activity and demand. The sustained increase indicates that the manufacturing and mining sectors are strengthening, which bodes well for overall economic stability.
What is the Industrial Production?
The Industrial Production Index (IPI) measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors. Published monthly by the Federal Reserve, it is indexed to a base year of 2017=100.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Industrial production is one of four key indicators the NBER monitors during recessions. Declines in IP have preceded or coincided with every post-war recession, making it a critical measure of real economic activity beyond the services sector.
Historical Context
IP fell over 17% during the 2008 recession and 12.7% during the COVID shock. Sustained declines of 2%+ from peak typically indicate recessionary conditions have already begun.
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