Industrial Production Index
Monitor the Industrial Production Index — a core NBER recession indicator tracking real output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining = manufacturing/mining weakness
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the Industrial Production Index stands at 102.3, indicating that production is expanding. This positive trend suggests that there is currently no significant risk of recession, as manufacturing and mining sectors are performing well.
What is the Industrial Production?
The Industrial Production Index (IPI) measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors. Published monthly by the Federal Reserve, it is indexed to a base year of 2017=100.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Industrial production is one of four key indicators the NBER monitors during recessions. Declines in IP have preceded or coincided with every post-war recession, making it a critical measure of real economic activity beyond the services sector.
Historical Context
IP fell over 17% during the 2008 recession and 12.7% during the COVID shock. Sustained declines of 2%+ from peak typically indicate recessionary conditions have already begun.
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