Macro glossary
Leading Economic Index (LEI)
The Conference Board's composite index of 10 leading economic indicators.
Definition
The LEI combines 10 components — average weekly hours in manufacturing, initial claims, ISM new orders, building permits, stock prices (S&P 500), the 2s10s spread, leading credit index, consumer expectations, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods, and nondefense capital goods. The '3Ds rule' (Depth, Diffusion, Duration) evaluates when LEI declines qualify as recession signals.
Related indicators
Conference Board LEI
Track the Conference Board LEI and the 3Ds Rule. When depth, diffusion, and duration align, recessio
Building Permits
Track U.S. residential building permits in real time. Declining permits are the most critical recess
Jobless Claims
Weekly initial jobless claims tracker. Rising claims above 300K sustained signal labor market weaken
ISM Manufacturing
Real-time ISM Manufacturing PMI tracking. Sub-50 readings signal manufacturing contraction and poten