Building Permits (Residential)
Track U.S. residential building permits in real time. Declining permits are the single most critical variable for predicting recessions according to Moody's Analytics.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining permits = housing-led slowdown
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, building permits stand at 1,448,000, indicating a moderate slowdown in the housing sector. The declining number of permits suggests a potential housing-led economic slowdown, raising recession risk in the near term.
What is the Building Permits?
Building permits measure the number of new residential construction projects authorized by local governments. Released monthly by the Census Bureau, they reflect future housing construction activity and developer confidence.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi calls residential building permit growth 'the most critical economic variable' for predicting recessions. Housing construction leads the business cycle by 3-5 quarters, making permits one of the earliest signals available.
Historical Context
Building permits plunged from 2.2M to under 600K before the 2008 housing crisis. Research spanning 100 years shows permit volatility strongly predicts financial market downturns at 12-month horizons.
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