Housing Starts
Track U.S. housing starts — a key leading indicator. Residential investment leads the business cycle by 3-5 quarters.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining starts lead cycle by 3-5 quarters
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, housing starts are at 1,404K, indicating a moderate slowing trend. This decline suggests potential recession risk, as falling housing starts typically precede economic downturns by 3-5 quarters. Investors should remain cautious as this signal points to weakening economic activity ahead.
What is the Housing Starts?
Housing starts measure the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during a given month. Released by the Census Bureau, they reflect builder confidence and future construction activity.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Housing is one of the most interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy. Declining housing starts lead the business cycle by 3-5 quarters because construction generates demand across dozens of industries from lumber to appliances.
Historical Context
Housing starts collapsed from 2.3M to 478K during the 2008 crisis — the worst decline in modern history. Even moderate declines of 20%+ from peak have historically preceded broader economic weakness.
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