Macro glossary

Building Permits

Authorizations issued by local jurisdictions for private housing units to be built.

Definition

Building permits are the earliest available housing data. Year-over-year declines of 10% or more historically precede recessions by 9-15 months. Permits are a component of the Conference Board LEI.

Related indicators

Building Permits

Track U.S. residential building permits in real time. Declining permits are the most critical recess

Housing Starts

Track U.S. housing starts — a key leading indicator. Residential investment leads the business cycle

Related terms

Leading Economic Index (LEI)

The Conference Board's composite index of 10 leading economic indicators.

Recession Indicator

Any data series whose behavior reliably precedes or confirms a recession.

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