Macro glossary

Initial Jobless Claims

Weekly count of first-time filings for unemployment insurance benefits.

Definition

Initial claims are the highest-frequency labor indicator. Sustained readings above 300k-350k (after adjusting for trend labor-force growth) have historically preceded recessions. Claims are noisy week-to-week; use the 4-week moving average.

Related indicators

Jobless Claims

Weekly initial jobless claims tracker. Rising claims above 300K sustained signal labor market weaken

Unemployment Rate

Track the U.S. unemployment rate. Rising unemployment above 0.5% from cycle lows triggers recession

Related terms

Sahm Rule

A recession indicator that triggers when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its 12-month low.

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