Macro glossary

NY Fed Recession Probability

A monthly recession-probability model published by the New York Fed, based on the 3m10y yield curve spread.

Definition

Originally developed by economist Arturo Estrella, the NY Fed model converts the 3-month/10-year yield spread into a probability of recession over the next 12 months. Readings above 50% have preceded every recession since 1968.

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NY Fed Recession Prob

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Related terms

Yield Curve Inversion

When short-term Treasury yields exceed long-term Treasury yields, signaling elevated recession risk.

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