NY Fed Recession Probability Model
Track the New York Fed's recession probability model based on the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread. Exceeding 50% has preceded every recession since 1972.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >50% has preceded every recession since 1972
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's NY Fed Recession Probability stands at 3.5%, a significant decline from 16.1% on February 25, 2026, indicating a clear downward trend over the past three months. This consistent decrease, particularly from a peak of 20% in mid-April, suggests a strong reversal in recession risk, with the indicator now well below its recent midpoint of 7.9%. The current low reading reinforces a safe economic outlook, as values above 50% have historically signaled impending recessions.
What is the NY Fed Recession Prob?
The NY Fed recession probability model uses the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, using a probit model estimated from data since 1959.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
This is the most established academic recession probability model. When the estimated probability exceeds 50%, it has historically preceded every recession since 1972 with remarkable reliability.
Historical Context
The model estimated recession probability exceeded 70% in 2023 during the prolonged yield curve inversion. Prior peaks above 40% in 2006 and 2000 correctly preceded those recessions.
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