NY Fed Recession Probability Model
Track the New York Fed's recession probability model based on the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread. Exceeding 50% has preceded every recession since 1972.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >50% has preceded every recession since 1972
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's NY Fed Recession Probability stands at 7.7%, reflecting a significant decline from a peak of 20% on March 17, 2026, and a recent high of 20% on April 3, 2026. This downward trend indicates a reversal from elevated recession fears, as the probability has dropped sharply over the past week from 20% to 7.7%, suggesting a low risk of recession at this time. The current value remains well below the critical threshold of 50%, reinforcing a safe economic outlook.
What is the NY Fed Recession Prob?
The NY Fed recession probability model uses the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, using a probit model estimated from data since 1959.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
This is the most established academic recession probability model. When the estimated probability exceeds 50%, it has historically preceded every recession since 1972 with remarkable reliability.
Historical Context
The model estimated recession probability exceeded 70% in 2023 during the prolonged yield curve inversion. Prior peaks above 40% in 2006 and 2000 correctly preceded those recessions.
Related Indicators
Sahm Rule
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.
Yield Curve 2s10s
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since 1955.
Yield Curve 2s30s
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.
Get Daily NY Fed Recession Prob Alerts
Receive SMS and email alerts when this indicator changes status. Stay ahead of the market.