Macro glossary
LEI 3Ds Rule
The Conference Board's framework for converting LEI declines into recession signals: Depth, Diffusion, Duration.
Definition
The 3Ds rule triggers a recession signal when (1) the 6-month LEI growth rate is below -4.3%, (2) more than half of components are declining (diffusion), and (3) declines are sustained over multiple months. Historical accuracy exceeds 85%.