Macro glossary

Federal Funds Rate

The overnight interbank lending rate targeted by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Definition

The Fed Funds rate is the Fed's primary policy tool. Hikes transmit through the broader curve via the term structure. Every Fed tightening cycle since 1955 has either coincided with or preceded a recession, with the exception of the 1994-95 soft landing.

Related indicators

Fed Funds Rate

Track the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate. Rate cuts after sustained hiking cycles often s

Yield Curve 2s10s

Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have pre

Related terms

Inflation

A sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services.

Yield Curve Inversion

When short-term Treasury yields exceed long-term Treasury yields, signaling elevated recession risk.

Soft Landing

A scenario in which monetary policy slows inflation without causing a recession.

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