Compare Recession Indicators
Which indicator wins on lead time? On accuracy? On false-positive rate? These head-to-heads break down the trade-offs with historical data and practical guidance for using them together.
Sahm Rule vs Yield Curve (2s10s)
Which is the better recession indicator — Sahm Rule or 2s10s yield curve?
Sahm Rule vs Unemployment Rate
Sahm Rule vs headline unemployment rate — which signals recession first?
Yield Curve 2s10s vs 2s30s
2s10s vs 2s30s — which yield curve spread is the better recession signal?
Yield Curve (2s10s) vs NY Fed Recession Probability
2s10s spread vs NY Fed Recession Probability model — which is more accurate?
Conference Board LEI vs Sahm Rule
Conference Board LEI vs Sahm Rule — which gives more lead time?
ISM Manufacturing PMI vs Conference Board LEI
ISM Manufacturing PMI vs Conference Board LEI — both have lead time, which wins?
Credit Spreads vs VIX
Credit spreads vs VIX — which is a better stress signal?
NFCI vs Credit Spreads
NFCI vs high-yield credit spreads — which captures financial conditions better?
Credit Card Delinquency vs Personal Savings Rate
Credit card delinquencies vs personal savings rate — which warns first on consumer stress?
Initial Jobless Claims vs Unemployment Rate
Initial jobless claims vs unemployment rate — which is more timely?
JOLTS Quits Rate vs Initial Jobless Claims
JOLTS quits rate vs initial claims — which measures labor market heat?
Building Permits vs Housing Starts
Building permits vs housing starts — which is the better leading housing signal?
Fed Funds Rate vs Yield Curve (2s10s)
Fed Funds rate vs 2s10s spread — which drives recession risk?
Copper-Gold Ratio vs VIX
Copper-gold ratio vs VIX — which is a better growth signal?
GDPNow Nowcast vs GDP Growth
GDPNow vs actual GDP growth — how accurate is the nowcast?
M2 Money Supply vs Fed Funds Rate
M2 money supply vs Fed Funds rate — which reflects Fed policy better?
DXY Dollar Index vs Emerging Markets
DXY dollar index vs emerging-markets equities — how do they interact?
S&P 500 P/E vs Buffett Indicator
S&P 500 P/E ratio vs Buffett indicator — which signals overvaluation better?
Corporate Profits vs S&P 500
Corporate profits vs S&P 500 — what leads what?
Bank Unrealized Losses vs NFCI
Bank unrealized losses vs NFCI — which warned about SVB?
US Debt-to-GDP vs Interest Expense
US debt-to-GDP vs interest expense — which matters more for fiscal sustainability?
Gold-Silver Ratio vs Copper-Gold Ratio
Gold-silver ratio vs copper-gold ratio — which is the better macro signal?
NFIB Optimism vs Consumer Sentiment
NFIB small-business optimism vs consumer sentiment — which drives hiring?
Inventory-Sales Ratio vs ISM Manufacturing
Inventory-to-sales ratio vs ISM PMI — which catches the inventory cycle?
SLOOS Lending Standards vs Credit Spreads
SLOOS lending standards vs credit spreads — which matters more for the credit cycle?
Temp Help Services vs JOLTS Quits Rate
Temp help services employment vs JOLTS quits rate — which leads labor market turns?
Cass Freight Index vs ISM Manufacturing
Cass freight index vs ISM Manufacturing — which leads the goods economy?
ON RRP Facility vs M2 Money Supply
ON RRP facility vs M2 money supply — what's happening to system liquidity?
Nasdaq vs S&P 500
Nasdaq vs S&P 500 — which is more sensitive to recession?