GDPNow Nowcast vs GDP Growth
GDPNow vs actual GDP growth — how accurate is the nowcast?
One-year comparison
Left axis: GDP Growth (green) · Right axis: GDPNow (blue)
The analysis
GDPNow is the Atlanta Fed's real-time model-based estimate of the current quarter's GDP. It updates 6-8 times per quarter as new data flows in. The final pre-release GDPNow estimate has historically been within 0.4 percentage points of the BEA's advance GDP print. For current-quarter reads, GDPNow is the only game in town; BEA advance doesn't arrive until the quarter is 4 weeks over.
Track U.S. GDP growth rate and nowcast estimates. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the traditional recession definition.
Track the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model — a real-time GDP growth estimate updated throughout the quarter with no subjective adjustments.