Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Track the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model — a real-time GDP growth estimate updated throughout the quarter with no subjective adjustments.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0% = real-time recession signal
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is projecting a GDP growth rate of 1.8%, which is below the trend level. This indicates a slowing economy and suggests an increased risk of recession, especially as growth remains weak and close to the threshold for a real-time recession signal.
What is the GDPNow?
GDPNow is a running estimate of real GDP growth published by the Atlanta Fed. It uses a methodology similar to the BEA's GDP calculation, incorporating economic data releases throughout the quarter to provide an evolving forecast.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Unlike official GDP data which arrives with a one-quarter lag, GDPNow provides a real-time window into current economic growth. A GDPNow reading below 0% suggests the economy may already be contracting.
Historical Context
GDPNow correctly signaled the sharp Q1 2020 contraction and has generally tracked within 1 percentage point of the final GDP estimate. It made headlines in early 2025 when it briefly turned negative.
Related Indicators
Sahm Rule
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.
Yield Curve 2s10s
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since 1955.
Yield Curve 2s30s
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.
Get Daily GDPNow Alerts
Receive SMS and email alerts when this indicator changes status. Stay ahead of the market.