Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Track the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model — a real-time GDP growth estimate updated throughout the quarter with no subjective adjustments.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0% = real-time recession signal
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Atlanta Fed GDPNow value is 1.8%, remaining unchanged over the past 36 days, indicating a flat trend with no movement in the data. This consistent reading, while below the trend, suggests a stagnant economic environment that does not currently signal an imminent recession, as the value remains above the critical threshold of 0%. However, the lack of upward momentum raises concerns about potential economic weakness in the near term.
What is the GDPNow?
GDPNow is a running estimate of real GDP growth published by the Atlanta Fed. It uses a methodology similar to the BEA's GDP calculation, incorporating economic data releases throughout the quarter to provide an evolving forecast.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Unlike official GDP data which arrives with a one-quarter lag, GDPNow provides a real-time window into current economic growth. A GDPNow reading below 0% suggests the economy may already be contracting.
Historical Context
GDPNow correctly signaled the sharp Q1 2020 contraction and has generally tracked within 1 percentage point of the final GDP estimate. It made headlines in early 2025 when it briefly turned negative.
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