Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Track the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model — a real-time GDP growth estimate updated throughout the quarter with no subjective adjustments.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0% = real-time recession signal
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Atlanta Fed GDPNow value is 1.8%, which has remained unchanged over the past 36 days, indicating a flat trend. This consistent reading is below the neutral threshold of 2%, suggesting that the economy is not gaining momentum and remains at risk of recession, especially as any drop below 0% would trigger a real-time recession signal. The lack of movement in this indicator reinforces concerns about economic stagnation.
What is the GDPNow?
GDPNow is a running estimate of real GDP growth published by the Atlanta Fed. It uses a methodology similar to the BEA's GDP calculation, incorporating economic data releases throughout the quarter to provide an evolving forecast.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Unlike official GDP data which arrives with a one-quarter lag, GDPNow provides a real-time window into current economic growth. A GDPNow reading below 0% suggests the economy may already be contracting.
Historical Context
GDPNow correctly signaled the sharp Q1 2020 contraction and has generally tracked within 1 percentage point of the final GDP estimate. It made headlines in early 2025 when it briefly turned negative.
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