Copper-to-Gold Ratio
Track the copper-to-gold ratio — a powerful gauge of industrial confidence vs financial fear. Currently at 50-year lows below the 2008 crisis.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0.00100 = industrial weakness vs fear
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Copper-to-Gold Ratio stands at 0.00077, marking a 50-year low and indicating extreme industrial fear. This value has remained unchanged over the past 52 days, reflecting a persistent state of industrial weakness and signaling a high risk of recession as the ratio has consistently triggered the danger threshold of <0.00100. The lack of movement in this indicator suggests entrenched pessimism in the industrial sector, reinforcing recessionary pressures.
What is the Copper/Gold Ratio?
The copper-to-gold ratio divides the price of copper (an industrial metal reflecting economic growth) by the price of gold (a safe-haven asset reflecting fear). A falling ratio means fear is outpacing industrial demand.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The ratio strongly correlates with 10-year Treasury yields (~0.85 correlation) and serves as a leading indicator for interest rates and economic conditions. Bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach considers it one of his favorite leading indicators.
Historical Context
The ratio has fallen to ~0.00077, below its 2008 financial crisis level (0.00110) and 2020 COVID low (0.00084). This reflects gold surging past $4,100/oz while copper remains range-bound amid geopolitical uncertainty.
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