Copper-to-Gold Ratio
Track the copper-to-gold ratio — a powerful gauge of industrial confidence vs financial fear. Currently at 50-year lows below the 2008 crisis.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <0.00100 = industrial weakness vs fear
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the Copper-to-Gold Ratio stands at 4.47814, indicating healthy industrial activity. This value is well above the critical threshold of 0.00100, suggesting that recession risk is low at this time. The trend signals confidence in economic growth rather than fear of industrial weakness.
What is the Copper/Gold Ratio?
The copper-to-gold ratio divides the price of copper (an industrial metal reflecting economic growth) by the price of gold (a safe-haven asset reflecting fear). A falling ratio means fear is outpacing industrial demand.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The ratio strongly correlates with 10-year Treasury yields (~0.85 correlation) and serves as a leading indicator for interest rates and economic conditions. Bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach considers it one of his favorite leading indicators.
Historical Context
The ratio has fallen to ~0.00077, below its 2008 financial crisis level (0.00110) and 2020 COVID low (0.00084). This reflects gold surging past $4,100/oz while copper remains range-bound amid geopolitical uncertainty.
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