Freight Transportation Index
Monitor the freight transportation index for real-time signals of goods economy health. Declining freight activity precedes broader economic weakness.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining = slowing real economic activity
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Freight Transportation Index value is -0.6, indicating a continued decline from a previous peak of 1.3 in July 2025. This downward trend has accelerated since early March, where the index stabilized at -0.5 for several weeks before dropping further, signaling a weakening goods economy and slowing real economic activity. The persistent decline in the index heightens recession risk, as it reflects a contraction in freight movement, which is a critical indicator of overall economic health. With the index now firmly in negative territory, the likelihood of a recession is increasing, as declining freight volumes suggest reduced consumer demand and business activity.
What is the Freight Index?
The Freight Transportation Services Index measures the volume of freight carried by for-hire transportation industries. It captures real-time shipping demand across trucking, rail, air, and pipeline.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
If goods aren't being shipped, they aren't being produced or consumed. Declining freight activity is one of the most tangible real-economy signals that production and consumption are weakening.
Historical Context
The freight index declined notably before both the 2008 and 2020 recessions. The 2022-2023 freight recession preceded broader manufacturing weakness by several quarters.
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