Freight Transportation Index
Monitor the freight transportation index for real-time signals of goods economy health. Declining freight activity precedes broader economic weakness.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining = slowing real economic activity
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the Freight Transportation Index stands at 1.3, indicating a dangerous decline in freight activity. This drop signals a weakening goods economy, suggesting that real economic activity is slowing down and increasing recession risk.
What is the Freight Index?
The Freight Transportation Services Index measures the volume of freight carried by for-hire transportation industries. It captures real-time shipping demand across trucking, rail, air, and pipeline.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
If goods aren't being shipped, they aren't being produced or consumed. Declining freight activity is one of the most tangible real-economy signals that production and consumption are weakening.
Historical Context
The freight index declined notably before both the 2008 and 2020 recessions. The 2022-2023 freight recession preceded broader manufacturing weakness by several quarters.
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