Bank Unrealized Losses vs NFCI
Bank unrealized losses vs NFCI — which warned about SVB?
One-year comparison
Left axis: Bank Losses (green) · Right axis: Chicago Fed NFCI (blue)
The analysis
Bank unrealized losses on securities peaked at $650B in 2022-23, flagging solvency fragility that materialized at SVB, Signature, and First Republic in March 2023. NFCI captures aggregate financial-conditions tightening but did not single out bank-specific stress. For bank-system risk, watch unrealized losses; for general financial-conditions tightening, watch NFCI.
Monitor U.S. bank unrealized losses on securities portfolios. Large unrealized losses signal financial system fragility and potential credit contraction.
Monitor the Chicago Fed NFCI — 105 financial measures in one index. Positive values signal tight financial conditions and recession risk.