Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
Monitor the Chicago Fed NFCI — 105 financial measures in one index. Positive values signal tight financial conditions and recession risk.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >0 = tighter-than-average financial conditions
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Chicago Fed NFCI value is -0.55, indicating loose financial conditions. Over the past three months, the indicator has shown a slight upward trend from a low of -0.566 on August 27 to today's value, reflecting a modest recovery in financial conditions, although it remains within a narrow range of -0.566 to -0.529. This trend suggests a reduced risk of recession at present, as the consistent values below zero indicate that financial conditions are more supportive than average, which typically correlates with economic stability and growth.
What is the Chicago Fed NFCI?
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) combines 105 measures of financial activity — across money markets, debt and equity markets, and the banking system — into a single weekly indicator. It has an average of zero and standard deviation of one since 1971.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Positive NFCI values indicate tighter-than-average financial conditions, which historically precede economic slowdowns. The index captures stress in risk, credit, and leverage simultaneously — providing a comprehensive financial health check.
Historical Context
The NFCI spiked sharply before both the 2008 financial crisis and the March 2020 market crash. Its three subindexes (risk, credit, leverage) help identify which dimension of financial stress is building.
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