Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
Monitor the Chicago Fed NFCI — 105 financial measures in one index. Positive values signal tight financial conditions and recession risk.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >0 = tighter-than-average financial conditions
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Chicago Fed NFCI value is -0.56, which reflects a downward trend from -0.504 in late June to -0.559 in late August, indicating a tightening of financial conditions over the past two months. This recent decline, particularly the drop from -0.549 to -0.559 in the last week, suggests a potential increase in recession risk as financial conditions become looser, moving further away from the average threshold.
What is the Chicago Fed NFCI?
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) combines 105 measures of financial activity — across money markets, debt and equity markets, and the banking system — into a single weekly indicator. It has an average of zero and standard deviation of one since 1971.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Positive NFCI values indicate tighter-than-average financial conditions, which historically precede economic slowdowns. The index captures stress in risk, credit, and leverage simultaneously — providing a comprehensive financial health check.
Historical Context
The NFCI spiked sharply before both the 2008 financial crisis and the March 2020 market crash. Its three subindexes (risk, credit, leverage) help identify which dimension of financial stress is building.
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