Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
Monitor the Chicago Fed NFCI — 105 financial measures in one index. Positive values signal tight financial conditions and recession risk.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >0 = tighter-than-average financial conditions
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's Chicago Fed NFCI value is -0.43, reflecting a notable upward trend from -0.56814 on February 23, 2026, indicating a shift towards less restrictive financial conditions. Over the past month, the indicator has risen significantly from -0.56294 on March 4, suggesting a potential easing in financial stress. This trend indicates a reduced risk of recession as financial conditions are becoming more favorable, moving closer to normal levels. The current reading, while still below zero, shows a clear direction towards improvement, which may support economic activity in the near term.
What is the Chicago Fed NFCI?
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) combines 105 measures of financial activity — across money markets, debt and equity markets, and the banking system — into a single weekly indicator. It has an average of zero and standard deviation of one since 1971.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Positive NFCI values indicate tighter-than-average financial conditions, which historically precede economic slowdowns. The index captures stress in risk, credit, and leverage simultaneously — providing a comprehensive financial health check.
Historical Context
The NFCI spiked sharply before both the 2008 financial crisis and the March 2020 market crash. Its three subindexes (risk, credit, leverage) help identify which dimension of financial stress is building.
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