Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
Monitor the Chicago Fed NFCI — 105 financial measures combined into one index. Positive values signal tighter-than-average financial conditions and recession risk.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >0 = tighter-than-average financial conditions
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) stands at -0.57, indicating loose financial conditions. This value suggests that financial markets are currently more accommodative than average, which reduces the risk of recession in the near term.
What is the Chicago Fed NFCI?
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) combines 105 measures of financial activity — across money markets, debt and equity markets, and the banking system — into a single weekly indicator. It has an average of zero and standard deviation of one since 1971.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Positive NFCI values indicate tighter-than-average financial conditions, which historically precede economic slowdowns. The index captures stress in risk, credit, and leverage simultaneously — providing a comprehensive financial health check.
Historical Context
The NFCI spiked sharply before both the 2008 financial crisis and the March 2020 market crash. Its three subindexes (risk, credit, leverage) help identify which dimension of financial stress is building.
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