Sahm Rule vs Unemployment Rate
Sahm Rule vs headline unemployment rate — which signals recession first?
One-year comparison
Left axis: Sahm Rule (green) · Right axis: Unemployment Rate (blue)
The analysis
The Sahm Rule is a derivative of the unemployment rate — specifically, the 3-month average minus the 12-month low. It fires earlier than any rule based on the absolute level of unemployment, because it captures the second derivative (rate of change) rather than the level. Historically the Sahm Rule has led recessions by 2-4 months, while headline unemployment often crosses 5% well after the NBER peak.
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.
Track the U.S. unemployment rate. Rising unemployment above 0.5% from cycle lows triggers recession signals including the Sahm Rule.