Head-to-head comparison
Copper-Gold Ratio vs VIX
Copper-gold ratio vs VIX — which is a better growth signal?
Verdict
Copper/Gold Ratio wins
Copper-gold leads growth regime shifts; VIX reacts to them.
One-year comparison
Left axis: Copper/Gold Ratio (green) · Right axis: VIX (blue)
The analysis
Copper-gold ratio tracks cyclical growth expectations via commodity positioning. VIX tracks equity-market stress via options. In growth scares, copper-gold falls before VIX rises — commodity markets often front-run equity repricing. Gundlach has cited copper-gold as a proxy for 10-year Treasury yields.
Indicator A
Copper/Gold Ratio
Track the copper-to-gold ratio — a powerful gauge of industrial confidence vs financial fear. Currently at 50-year lows below the 2008 crisis.
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Indicator B
VIX
Track the CBOE VIX — Wall Street's fear gauge. Combined with the yield curve, VIX cycles outperform the yield curve alone for recession prediction.
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