VIX Volatility Index
Track the CBOE VIX — Wall Street's fear gauge. Combined with the yield curve, VIX cycles outperform the yield curve alone for recession prediction.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >30 = high fear; >40 = crisis
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the VIX Volatility Index is at 20.2, indicating elevated uncertainty in the markets. While this level suggests some investor anxiety, it remains below the critical thresholds of 30 and 40 that signal high fear and crisis, respectively. Overall, the current VIX value points to a moderate recession risk, warranting close monitoring.
What is the VIX?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, calculated from S&P 500 option prices. Often called the 'fear gauge,' it reflects investor uncertainty.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Research shows the VIX-yield curve cycle significantly outperforms the yield curve alone for recession prediction. VIX spikes above 30 indicate market stress, while sustained readings above 20 suggest elevated uncertainty about economic conditions.
Historical Context
VIX spiked to 80+ during the 2008 crisis and 82 during the March 2020 crash. Sustained periods of low VIX (<12) often precede sharp corrections and have coincided with late-cycle complacency.
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Yield Curve 2s30s
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