VIX Volatility Index
Track the CBOE VIX — Wall Street's fear gauge. Combined with the yield curve, VIX cycles outperform the yield curve alone for recession prediction.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >30 = high fear; >40 = crisis
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's VIX value is 16.8, continuing a downward trend from a peak of 31.05 on March 31, 2026, and reflecting a significant decrease of 14.25 points over the past two months. This sustained decline indicates low volatility and investor complacency, suggesting a reduced risk of recession at this time, as market participants are not anticipating significant market disruptions.
What is the VIX?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, calculated from S&P 500 option prices. Often called the 'fear gauge,' it reflects investor uncertainty.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Research shows the VIX-yield curve cycle significantly outperforms the yield curve alone for recession prediction. VIX spikes above 30 indicate market stress, while sustained readings above 20 suggest elevated uncertainty about economic conditions.
Historical Context
VIX spiked to 80+ during the 2008 crisis and 82 during the March 2020 crash. Sustained periods of low VIX (<12) often precede sharp corrections and have coincided with late-cycle complacency.
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Credit Spreads
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Emerging Markets
Track emerging market performance as a global recession indicator. EM weakness often precedes developed market downturns.
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