VIX Volatility Index
Track the CBOE VIX — Wall Street's fear gauge. Combined with the yield curve, VIX cycles outperform the yield curve alone for recession prediction.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >30 = high fear; >40 = crisis
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's VIX value is 24.2, showing a significant increase from a low of 18 on April 3, indicating a rising trend in market volatility over the past week. This marks a notable shift from the recent low volatility period, with the VIX now above its midpoint of 21.01 and approaching the high fear threshold of 30. The upward movement in the VIX suggests heightened uncertainty in the market, increasing recession risk as investor sentiment turns cautious. With the VIX now firmly in the elevated range, it signals that market participants are bracing for potential economic turbulence ahead.
What is the VIX?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, calculated from S&P 500 option prices. Often called the 'fear gauge,' it reflects investor uncertainty.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Research shows the VIX-yield curve cycle significantly outperforms the yield curve alone for recession prediction. VIX spikes above 30 indicate market stress, while sustained readings above 20 suggest elevated uncertainty about economic conditions.
Historical Context
VIX spiked to 80+ during the 2008 crisis and 82 during the March 2020 crash. Sustained periods of low VIX (<12) often precede sharp corrections and have coincided with late-cycle complacency.
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Yield Curve 2s30s
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