Credit Card Delinquency vs Personal Savings Rate
Credit card delinquencies vs personal savings rate — which warns first on consumer stress?
One-year comparison
Left axis: CC Delinquency (green) · Right axis: Savings Rate (blue)
The analysis
Personal savings rate is a leading indicator: households run through cushion before missing payments. Credit card delinquencies are a coincident-to-lagging indicator: they show when stress has already hit the consumer balance sheet. A savings rate below 3% historically precedes rising delinquencies by 2-6 months.
Monitor U.S. credit card delinquency rates. At their highest since the Great Financial Crisis, rising delinquencies signal broad consumer financial stress.
Monitor the U.S. personal savings rate. Historically low savings mean consumers have no financial buffer when the economy turns down.