Head-to-head comparison
ISM Manufacturing PMI vs Conference Board LEI
ISM Manufacturing PMI vs Conference Board LEI — both have lead time, which wins?
Verdict
ISM Manufacturing wins
LEI has the better composite record; ISM is a key input to it.
One-year comparison
Left axis: Conference Board LEI (green) · Right axis: ISM Manufacturing (blue)
The analysis
ISM PMI is a single-month diffusion index; LEI is a 10-component composite. ISM new orders is actually a component of the LEI. The LEI wins on breadth and historical track record (85% accuracy with the 3Ds rule). ISM wins on timeliness — it releases the first business day of every month, while LEI lags by 3-4 weeks.
Indicator A
Conference Board LEI
Track the Conference Board LEI and the 3Ds Rule. When depth, diffusion, and duration align, recession probability exceeds 85%.
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Indicator B
ISM Manufacturing
Real-time ISM Manufacturing PMI tracking. Sub-50 readings signal manufacturing contraction and potential recession risk.
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