Head-to-head comparison
Cass Freight Index vs ISM Manufacturing
Cass freight index vs ISM Manufacturing — which leads the goods economy?
Verdict
Freight Index wins
Cass uses actual invoice data and leads ISM by 2-3 months.
One-year comparison
Left axis: Freight Index (green) · Right axis: ISM Manufacturing (blue)
The analysis
Cass freight shipments measure actual goods movement; ISM measures manufacturing sentiment. Cass has historically led ISM by 2-3 months. Cass YoY declines of 5%+ have coincided with industrial slowdowns. For goods-economy forecasting, Cass leads; ISM confirms.
Indicator A
Freight Index
Monitor the freight transportation index for real-time signals of goods economy health. Declining freight activity precedes broader economic weakness.
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Indicator B
ISM Manufacturing
Real-time ISM Manufacturing PMI tracking. Sub-50 readings signal manufacturing contraction and potential recession risk.
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