Conference Board LEI vs Sahm Rule
Conference Board LEI vs Sahm Rule — which gives more lead time?
One-year comparison
Left axis: Conference Board LEI (green) · Right axis: Sahm Rule (blue)
The analysis
The Conference Board LEI aggregates 10 components and typically leads recessions by 6-12 months using the 3Ds rule. The Sahm Rule is a single-indicator labor-market trigger that fires near the recession start. LEI wins on lead time; Sahm Rule wins on simplicity and real-time availability. In practice: use LEI 3Ds for macro forecasting, Sahm Rule for 'is it happening now?' decisions.
Track the Conference Board LEI and the 3Ds Rule. When depth, diffusion, and duration align, recession probability exceeds 85%.
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.