NFIB Optimism vs Consumer Sentiment
NFIB small-business optimism vs consumer sentiment — which drives hiring?
One-year comparison
Left axis: Consumer Sentiment (green) · Right axis: NFIB Optimism (blue)
The analysis
NFIB captures business-owner expectations for hiring and capex — a direct input to actual hiring decisions. Consumer sentiment captures household attitudes about spending. NFIB has the more direct link to aggregate hiring; consumer sentiment has the more direct link to consumption. Both are sentiment surveys — use with actual behavioral indicators.
Track consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan survey. Readings below 60 have historically aligned with recessionary conditions.
Track the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Small businesses employ nearly half of all workers — their sentiment drives hiring and investment decisions.