NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Track the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Small businesses employ nearly half of all workers — their sentiment drives hiring and investment decisions.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <95 = pessimistic; <90 = recessionary
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the NFIB Small Business Optimism index stands at 97.4, indicating a slight decline below the average level of optimism among small businesses. This value suggests a cautious outlook, but it remains above the critical thresholds of 95 and 90, which signal increasing recession risk. While the current sentiment is watchful, it does not yet indicate an imminent recession.
What is the NFIB Optimism?
The NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey has tracked small business sentiment since 1986. The Optimism Index aggregates components including employment plans, capital expenditure plans, sales expectations, and economic outlook.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Small businesses employ roughly 47% of the private workforce. When small business optimism drops below the 52-year average of ~98, it signals that employers are pulling back on hiring and investment.
Historical Context
The index plunged below 90 during both the 2008 and 2020 recessions. Sustained readings below 95 have historically coincided with or preceded economic contractions.
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