Corporate Profits (After Tax)
Track U.S. corporate profits after tax. Declining profits have preceded 81% of recessions since 1900 — the heart of the business cycle.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining profits preceded 81% of recessions
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, after-tax corporate profits stand at $3.6 trillion, indicating a healthy economic environment. This level of profits suggests that recession risk is low, as declining profits have historically preceded 81% of recessions.
What is the Corporate Profits?
Corporate profits after tax measure the total net income of U.S. corporations, adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption. Released quarterly by the BEA, they reflect the overall health of the business sector.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Profits are 'the heart and soul of the business cycle.' Declining profits drive businesses to cut investment, hiring, and production. Two consecutive quarters of earnings decline have preceded recession 81% of the time since 1900.
Historical Context
Corporate profits peaked before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. The only times profit declines didn't lead to recession were when offset by extraordinary fiscal stimulus or monetary easing.
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