Corporate Profits (After Tax)
Track U.S. corporate profits after tax. Declining profits have preceded 81% of recessions since 1900 — the heart of the business cycle.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining profits preceded 81% of recessions
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value for Corporate Profits (After Tax) is $3.6 trillion, which has remained flat at this level since March 10, 2026, showing no change over the past month. This stability indicates a lack of growth or decline in corporate profitability, suggesting that recession risk remains low for now, as declining profits have historically preceded 81% of recessions, and current profits are holding steady.
What is the Corporate Profits?
Corporate profits after tax measure the total net income of U.S. corporations, adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption. Released quarterly by the BEA, they reflect the overall health of the business sector.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Profits are 'the heart and soul of the business cycle.' Declining profits drive businesses to cut investment, hiring, and production. Two consecutive quarters of earnings decline have preceded recession 81% of the time since 1900.
Historical Context
Corporate profits peaked before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. The only times profit declines didn't lead to recession were when offset by extraordinary fiscal stimulus or monetary easing.
Related Indicators
Sahm Rule
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.
Yield Curve 2s10s
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since 1955.
Yield Curve 2s30s
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.
Get Daily Corporate Profits Alerts
Receive SMS and email alerts when this indicator changes status. Stay ahead of the market.