Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS)
Track bank lending standards from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey. Tightening credit means less lending and slower economic growth.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Net tightening >20% = credit crunch
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's SLOOS Lending Standards value is 8.1%, reflecting a modest tightening trend that has emerged since early May, where it started at 5.3% and peaked at 10% before stabilizing at 8.1% for the past week. This consistent tightening suggests a cautious lending environment, which could indicate increasing recession risk as credit becomes less accessible, particularly if the tightening exceeds 20%, signaling a potential credit crunch.
What is the SLOOS Lending?
The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) is a quarterly Fed survey of up to 80 large banks tracking changes in lending standards and loan demand for business and consumer loans.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
When banks tighten lending standards, credit becomes harder to obtain — slowing business investment and consumer spending. Net tightening above 20% has historically been associated with recessions or near-recession conditions.
Historical Context
Lending standards tightened dramatically before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Current standards remain on the tighter end of the range observed since 2005, reflecting ongoing bank caution.
Related Indicators
Corporate Profits
Track U.S. corporate profits after tax. Declining profits have preceded 81% of recessions since 1900 — the heart of the business cycle.
NFIB Optimism
Track the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Small businesses employ nearly half of all workers — their sentiment drives hiring and investment decisions.
Inventory/Sales
Track the business inventory-to-sales ratio. Rising inventories relative to sales signal goods are piling up and production cuts are coming.
Get Daily SLOOS Lending Alerts
Receive SMS and email alerts when this indicator changes status. Stay ahead of the market.