Yield Curve 2s10s vs 2s30s
2s10s vs 2s30s — which yield curve spread is the better recession signal?
One-year comparison
Left axis: Yield Curve 2s10s (green) · Right axis: Yield Curve 2s30s (blue)
The analysis
Both spreads have inverted before every post-war recession. The 2s10s is cited more often because it inverts earlier and more cleanly. The 2s30s is stickier — it rarely inverts and tends to stay inverted longer, making it useful for confirmation. For early warning, watch 2s10s; for judging the depth of the recession-pricing regime, watch 2s30s.
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since 1955.
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.