Head-to-head comparison
Nasdaq vs S&P 500
Nasdaq vs S&P 500 — which is more sensitive to recession?
Verdict
S&P 500 wins
S&P 500 is the broader recession signal; Nasdaq amplifies both directions.
One-year comparison
Left axis: NASDAQ (green) · Right axis: S&P 500 (blue)
The analysis
Nasdaq is tech-heavy and long-duration. S&P 500 is broader and more defensive. In recessions, Nasdaq typically drawdowns 50-80% (2001: -78%, 2008: -54%); S&P 500 drawdowns are 35-57% (2001: -49%, 2008: -57%). Nasdaq leads on the way up in recoveries and falls more on the way down in downturns. The Nasdaq/S&P 500 ratio is itself a risk-appetite signal.
Indicator A
NASDAQ
Track the NASDAQ Composite index. Tech-heavy and growth-oriented, NASDAQ is highly sensitive to interest rates and often leads economic cycle turns.
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Indicator B
S&P 500
Track the S&P 500 index in real time. Bear markets (20%+ decline) have preceded or coincided with every US recession since 1950.
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